307
FXUS66 KOTX 011751
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1051 AM PDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK.
-COOLER TEMPERATURES, SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND
BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
-TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
MINOR RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR THOSE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS ON SATURDAY AND THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH STRETCHES FROM ALASKA TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, MOVING ONSHORE. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES TO 15 TO 18C, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD SURFACE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE 80F FOR AREAS BELOW 2200 FEET
IN ELEVATION, WHERE THE NBM SHOWS AN 80 PERCENT OR GREATER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TEMPERATURE,
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO FEEL QUITE WARM, WITH HIGHS RUNNING 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MAY 2.
WHILE MOST PEOPLE CAN TOLERATE THIS LEVEL OF HEAT, THOSE WHO ARE
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE WILL FACE A MINOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
IF YOU PLAN TO HEAD TO LOCAL LAKES OR RIVERS TO COOL OFF, BE CAUTIOUS
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD. WEARING A LIFE JACKET OR STAYING
OUT OF THE WATER IS RECOMMENDED TO REDUCE THE RISK OF COLD WATER
SHOCK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODELS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A WEAK AND SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 0.10 INCHES OR GREATER IN FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES, WITH A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
THE SAME AMOUNT. AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY COULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ENSEMBLES SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME SPLIT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CLOSES OFF. THIS LEAVES THE INLAND NORTHWEST
AT THE SADDLE POINT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO NOSE IN
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE
GAPS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED THROUGH THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS,
SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
65 PERCENT OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN
COULD BREAK DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 45 80 50 70 43 64 / 0 0 10 20 30 30
COEUR D'ALENE 43 79 47 71 44 60 / 0 0 10 20 40 40
PULLMAN 46 77 48 64 41 58 / 0 0 10 30 50 40
LEWISTON 49 85 53 72 48 63 / 0 0 10 30 40 40
COLVILLE 40 79 44 73 43 68 / 0 0 10 40 50 30
SANDPOINT 43 78 46 72 46 59 / 0 0 10 30 50 50
KELLOGG 48 77 50 68 45 56 / 0 0 0 20 50 60
MOSES LAKE 45 84 52 70 43 73 / 0 0 20 30 0 0
WENATCHEE 51 83 56 66 43 70 / 0 0 20 30 10 0
OMAK 47 83 51 71 43 71 / 0 0 20 40 30 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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