858
FXUS66 KOTX 041745
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1045 AM PDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN SUNDAY.
- BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST
MONDAY.
- DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON SUNDAY AND EXPAND
INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
RETURN INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: UPPER-LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
(MAINLY CAMAS PRAIRIE TO CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS), OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN REGION-WIDE AS DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
IS USHERED IN WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, WATERVILLE PLATEAU,
AND WESTERN BASIN WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR NE WA, SPOKANE AREA, AND N ID WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
DAY CLOSER SUNSET, COMING WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 10 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL WA WILL ENJOY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO, IT WILL BE A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TO START THE DAY THEN TRENDS WILL BE
TOWARD MORE SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: A RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM OFF THE WA COAST MONDAY
AND MOVE OVER THE INLAND NW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL DELIVER A
WARMING TREND WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY, WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, COLUMBIA BASIN, AND PURCELL TRENCH OF
NORTH IDAHO. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION
ON TUESDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE PALOUSE
AND LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. WIND SPEEDS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 60S TO 70S MONDAY THEN 70S AND A FEW 80S
TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15-25%. USE CAUTION IF BURNING AROUND
DRY FUEL BEDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLEVEL TROF. THIS WILL USHER
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH BREEZY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. OF THE 100 MEMBER ENSEMBLES, 75%
SUPPORT NO RAINFALL. 25% INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NBM
POPS BUT COMES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE
EXTREMELY LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WEDNESDAY'S FRONT
WILL ALSO COME WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
30 MPH OR STRONGER IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES, PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN, AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE INLAND NW WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOSE
NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING YET ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT DIFFER BY THE WEEKEND WITH 20%
OF THE ENSEMBLES BRINGING THE NEXT TROF INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON; 70% FAVOR THIS TO OCCUR SUNDAY. COULD FLIP
THIS AROUND AND LOOK AT THIS AS THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE FOR THE
RIDGE TO HOLD SATURDAY AND ONLY 30% SUNDAY. NONETHELESS, THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE UPCOMING BREAKDOWN
(EASTWARD SHIFT) OF THE RIDGE AND HOW/IF THIS WILL BRING NEEDED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. WHEN THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN, IT IS
NEAR CERTAIN THAT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY ONCE AGAIN.
/SB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BREEZIEST
SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON (KEAT,KOMK,KEPH,KMWH) AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON (KPUW).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 39 68 43 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 37 67 39 73 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 34 65 40 70 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 41 72 44 77 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 32 69 34 74 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 38 65 37 72 42 75 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 39 62 38 69 45 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 41 74 44 78 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 42 72 47 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 37 73 44 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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