850
FXUS66 KOTX 050935
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
235 AM PDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TODAY (MON).
- DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVE WITH WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE WORK WEEK WILL START OFF DRY WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. 2AM SATELLITE REVEALS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 130W OFF THE WA COAST. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST PACKAGES FOR THIS
RIDGE TO SHIFT OVER EASTERN WA ON TUESDAY THEN SLIDE INTO
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGES DELIVER STABLE WEATHER PATTERNS AND
WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS (I.E. PWATS OF 0.20-0.30"),
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE,
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY (MON) SHIFTING TOWARD
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE
20-25 MPH WITH VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS CARRYING A 10-15% CHANCE TO
REACH 30 MPH. OVERNIGHTS WILL BE COOL WITH SHELTERED NORTHERN
VALLEYS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK, OTHERWISE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE 60S TO 70S TODAY AND 70S
TUESDAY.
SOME CHANGES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED BREEZINESS OF 20-25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 70S AND A FEW LOWER 80S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT USHERING A STRONGER PUSH OF WINDS
THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND INTO THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS FAR
EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO. POPS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, NOW VARYING FROM 20-40% FOR LOCATIONS LIKE KELLOGG,
SANDPOINT, COEUR D' ALENE, SPOKANE, PULLMAN, AND MOSCOW. QPF
LOOKS TO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH WESTERLY FLOW TO OVERCOME THE CASCADE
RAIN SHADOW FOR CENTRAL WA.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE INLAND NW WITH
TEMPERATURES AS PWATS PLUMMET BACK NEAR 0.20". TEMPERATURES COOL
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BUT THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND 80S
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS
INTO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ROUGHLY 80% OF THE
ENSEMBLES BRING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE NW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
EXACT TIMING AND TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHICH LEADS TO MUCH
LARGER SPREADS IN POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES. FOR EXAMPLE, NBM
25-75TH PERCENTILE MAX T FOR SPOKANE VARY FROM 69F TO 85F. THE
INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
IF THE TROF TAKES A MORE NORTHERN TRACK, THIS WOULD PRESENT THE
WINDIEST SCENARIO, BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, AND COOLING. IF THE
TROF SPLITS AND MOST OF ITS ENERGY SWINGS SOUTH OF WA AS THE
LAST FEW SYSTEMS DID, THIS SCENARIO WOULD NOT BE AS WINDY, LESS
SHOWERS, AND NOT AS COOL. STAY TUNED. /SB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING A WIND
SHIFT MONDAY AS GENERAL WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 20
KTS INCLUDING KCOE/KMWH. AFTERNOON HEATING ON MONDAY COMBINED
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE 5000-10000 FEET MSL LAYER WILL
PROMOTE FLAT CUMULUS OVER THE ID PANHANDLE AND EASTERN THIRD OF
WA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 41 72 45 76 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 20 0
COEUR D'ALENE 38 72 43 75 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 30 10
PULLMAN 38 69 43 74 47 65 / 0 0 0 0 30 0
LEWISTON 43 76 48 82 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 20 0
COLVILLE 34 73 38 76 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 30 10
SANDPOINT 37 71 42 73 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 40 10
KELLOGG 38 68 45 72 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 40 10
MOSES LAKE 41 77 45 81 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
WENATCHEE 46 75 51 79 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
OMAK 41 76 42 78 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 20 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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