998
FXUS66 KOTX 071022
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
322 AM PDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED GRASS FIRE CONCERNS IN EAST WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- SHOWERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF COOLDOWN IN THE 60S
THURSDAY
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO THE 70S
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
WORK WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND THURSDAY: INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT WITH UP TO 0.15"
AT THE CASCADE CREST. NOT ALL LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL EVEN SEE RAIN
FROM THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE
AREA LOOK TO MOSTLY DODGE ANY PRECIP. BREEZY SOUTHWEST PREFRONTAL
WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH AND DRY AIR TODAY WILL POSE A
MINOR GRASS FIRE THREAT IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SHARP COLD FRONT OFF THE WA
COAST WITH VERY DRY AIR BEHIND IT. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15-20
MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL BRING UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR MAY
TO THE INW TOMORROW. WITH PWATS 30-60% OF NORMAL, EXPECTING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES TO BE WIDESPREAD 10-20%. LUCKILY THURSDAY WINDS APPEAR
LIGHT (SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH), SO GRASS FIRE THREAT IS FAIRLY LIMITED.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN US
BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP LOW
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST. AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST, IT
BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND DIG SOUTH TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEK, THIS WOULD FAVOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE AIRMASS BECOMES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE PROBABILITY FOR 0.5"+ OF RAIN OR MORE IS
ABOUT 2-15% FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON, 10-30% FOR EASTERN WASHINGTON,
30-50% FOR NORTH IDAHO. DB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION REACHING
THE CASCADES 00-03Z AND NORTH IDAHO 06-09Z. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH CIGS LOWERING
NEAR 7K FT AGL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL MAINLY BE A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA OVER THE CASCADE
CREST AND IDAHO PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SHARP SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
POST FRONTAL. A PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED
FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IF -SHRA DEVELOP
AT ANY SITES. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES FOR ANY SITE
INCLUDING GEG, SFF, LWS, MWH, EAT WITH RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN
20%. AS FOR PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS > 30 MPH...40% CHANCE
AT KEAT 03-08Z; 20% CHANCE AT GEG-COE 05-08Z; AND 60% CHANCE
AT PUW-LWS 05-08Z. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 67 42 78 49 76 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 46 67 40 76 46 76 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 46 64 43 76 49 73 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 54 73 49 83 54 81 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 40 68 37 75 44 76 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 47 66 39 74 46 75 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 49 63 45 75 51 75 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 42 70 42 80 49 80 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 43 69 47 78 53 77 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 41 69 42 75 47 77 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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