744
FXUS66 KOTX 271818
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1118 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER WITH MINOR AND MODERATE HEATRISK
ON WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. ELEVATED RISK FOR QUICK
FIRE SPREAD IN GRASSY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY A COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS REGIONWIDE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
WARMER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND 80S TODAY AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE POPULATION CENTERS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH
IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY: THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT AND TRAILING SHORTWAVE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 0.75 TO
0.95 INCHES AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL. EXAMINING INDIVIDUAL
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REVEAL DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING ALOFT, BUT THE NBM IS
GIVING FAR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO A 50-60% CHANCE
FOR SBCAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR. WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING THE BEST DYNAMICS TO
ALIGN WITH THE PEAK INSTABILITY, THIS RAISES ALARMS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE CAMS
BEGIN TO CAPTURE THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
WE SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA WHERE THE BIGGEST THREAT EXISTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. FOLLOWING 2 DAYS OF WARMING AND DRYING,
THIS WILL ELEVATE THE RISK FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD IN GRASSY
AREAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
RIDGE TO BEGIN TO REBUILD FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ON SATURDAY. WPC
CLUSTERS SHOW 85% OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING A MORE
PERMANENT RIDGE BREAKDOWN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN US AND A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH THOUGH, AND 15% OF
ENSEMBLES WANT TO KEEP RIDGING IN PLACE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT
CONTINUING. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, PROMOTING DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A FEW
FAIR CUMULUS BUILD-UPS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 75 51 87 58 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 20 0
COEUR D'ALENE 75 51 87 56 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 20 10
PULLMAN 72 49 85 55 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 20 0
LEWISTON 80 55 92 61 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
COLVILLE 76 47 87 52 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 60 20
SANDPOINT 74 51 87 56 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 40 20
KELLOGG 72 54 87 60 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 10
MOSES LAKE 80 51 91 59 84 46 / 0 0 0 10 10 0
WENATCHEE 81 58 90 63 79 50 / 0 0 0 10 10 0
OMAK 80 54 91 58 82 46 / 0 0 0 10 30 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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