690
FXUS66 KOTX 272103
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
203 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER WITH MINOR AND MODERATE HEATRISK
ON WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. ELEVATED RISK FOR QUICK
FIRE SPREAD IN GRASSY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY A COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS REGIONWIDE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS IN THE INW.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE MID 70S AND MID 80S. TOMORROW
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S.
CHANGES COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE MOVES ONTO
THE COAST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES. THE UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING IS SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND THE
BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO NOT EXPECTING A PROLIFIC LIGHTNING
EVENT. SOUNDING PROFILES IN NEAR PROXIMITY SEEM TO SUGGEST A
COMBINATION OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORM CORES. IT WILL ULTIMATELY
COME DOWN TO HOW DRY THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE (FAIRLY
DRY DUE TO HITTING UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WED AFTERNOON IN THE VALLEYS).
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN (>0.10") IS NEAR/AT THE CASCADE
CREST (30% CHANCE). BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON SO THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. CAPE
VALUES AROUND 200-800 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE AROUND 30-
40 KTS SUPPORT A STRONGER CELL OR TWO. THE PARAMETER SPACE LOOKS A
BIT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTHERN BC. THERE WILL BE
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON THAT WILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WITH 10-20 MPH WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-35
MPH. AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE DRY WITH RHS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: STRONG RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE FRIDAY AND WE STAY IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES PEAK AGAIN IN THE 80S AND 90S SATURDAY BUT
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY 500 MB
LOW FORMING SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND 70S AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. DB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, PROMOTING DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A FEW
FAIR CUMULUS BUILD-UPS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 87 58 80 47 79 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 52 87 56 79 48 79 / 0 0 0 10 10 0
PULLMAN 50 84 55 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
LEWISTON 55 92 61 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
COLVILLE 47 87 52 80 43 80 / 0 0 0 50 20 0
SANDPOINT 52 87 56 80 49 78 / 0 0 0 30 20 0
KELLOGG 54 86 60 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 10 10 0
MOSES LAKE 52 91 59 84 46 84 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 58 90 63 80 49 84 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
OMAK 54 90 58 82 46 81 / 0 0 10 30 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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