528
FXUS66 KOTX 280910
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
210 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY WITH MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HEATRISK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
- ELEVATED RISK FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD IN GRASSY AREAS OF CENTRAL
WASHINGTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMER ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BE WARMER AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL DELIVER ANOTHER WARMUP BEFORE COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A WEATHER ROLLER COASTER WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WE HEAD UPHILL TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A DROP THURSDAY, BACK UP FRIDAY-SATURDAY, AND THEN
ANOTHER DROP ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF BREEZY WINDS, AND SOME BRIEF AND MAINLY LIGHT
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WITH EACH COLD FRONT THAT PASSES.
TODAY: SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE UP TO 19-22C
TRANSLATING TO VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, WHICH IS
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE HEATRISK OVER THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY: MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ALL
AREAS UNDER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TIMING LOOKS TO REACH CENTRAL WA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS, FORCING WITH THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH 700-500MB MU CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON INTO THE NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE QUICK
MOVING FRONT HOWEVER, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REGION. DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REACHES CENTRAL WA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED
WITH BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL WITH ANY
NEW OR EXISTING FIRES. OVER NE WA AND THE N IDAHO PANHANDLE MODELS
ARE SHOWING HIGHER CAPE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAPE AROUND
400-800 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS SUPPORTING A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO QUIETER CONDITIONS BUT WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 580 DAM IS THE COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WON'T BE MUCH
ON FRIDAY AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. AND ON SATURDAY
850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB EVEN FURTHER WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS WARM AS THOSE TODAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PASSING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WITH WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN
CENTRAL WA. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS GIVING WENATCHEE A 24 HOUR
PERIOD OF 35-45 MPH WIND GUSTS. THE NBM IS GIVING WENATCHEE,
AND EPHRATA A 30% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: ENSEMBLES SHOW AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, A
LOW CLOSES OFF AND THEN HEADS SOUTH TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. DEPENDING
ON PRECISELY WHERE THE LOW SETS UP, BANDS OF SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS. BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TO START THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE DEPTH OF THE LOW, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD DEVELOP DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, PURCELL
TRENCH OF NORTH IDAHO, AND OUT OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN. JW
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN OVER CENTRAL
WA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD (03-06Z THURSDAY) AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THEN BETWEEN 06-12Z THURSDAY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS COMES IN FROM THE SOUTH, COMING
TOWARD THE CASCADES AND WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN. THIS WILL BRING
A RISK TO EAT/MWH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA/-TSRA IMPACTING
EAT/MWH OVERNIGHT.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 75 52 87 58 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 30 0
COEUR D'ALENE 75 52 88 57 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 30 0
PULLMAN 72 50 84 55 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 20 0
LEWISTON 80 55 91 62 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 20 0
COLVILLE 76 47 86 53 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 60 20
SANDPOINT 74 52 86 56 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 30 20
KELLOGG 72 54 85 61 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 30 0
MOSES LAKE 80 52 91 59 80 46 / 0 0 0 20 20 0
WENATCHEE 81 58 89 63 79 50 / 0 0 0 20 20 0
OMAK 80 54 89 58 78 43 / 0 0 0 10 30 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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