797
FXUS66 KOTX 282216
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
316 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY
- ELEVATED RISK FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD IN GRASSY AREAS OF CENTRAL
WASHINGTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARM ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY EVENING
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL DELIVER ANOTHER WARMUP BEFORE COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT - THURSDAY: IT HAS BEEN A WARM DAY ACROSS THE INLAND NW AS
MANY SITES HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S AS OF 2PM AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON.
SATELLITE REVEALS A COLD FRONT LIMPING TOWARD THE WA COAST. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS INTO WESTERN WA THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO
PEAK UP SPEED WHILE CROSSING THROUGH EASTERN WA THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE TWO MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT: 1) SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND 2) GUSTY WINDS.
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT
(ALREADY EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL OREGON AT THIS HOUR WILL INTERACT
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT LEADING TO HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NAM WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL WITH
NOCTURNAL THUNDER AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS SWATHS OF 100-300
J/KG CAPE WITHIN THE 700-500MB LAYER. SEEMS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
OCCURRED LAST SUNDAY AND WOULD ANTICIPATE A SIMILAR OUTCOME OF A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL WA AND ISOLATED THREAT IN
EASTERN WA/NORTH IDAHO GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
CORES DO NOT LOOK AS ROBUST AS SUNDAY THUS I DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30+ MPH. HOWEVER, AS THE COOLER, MARINE AIR
BLEEDS INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH ANY RAIN COOLED AIR...GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS PUSH.
A STRONGER PUSH OF WINDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE HEART OF THE COOLER AIR COMES INLAND WITH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THIS LATE AFTERNOON PUSH WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOLLOWING THURSDAY'S MORNING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
EMERGE. GREATEST RISK FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STRONG CELLS WILL BE
IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW TRACKING
BETWEEN REPUBLIC AND PRIEST LAKE WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY: VERY DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THURSDAY'S WAVE. WINDS WILL
RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION INTO SATURDAY DELIVERING ONE MORE WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
CONTINUING TO WARM INTO MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WHAT IS MOST
CONCERNING ABOUT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE BREAK
DOWN OF THE HEAT. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH
WITH A STRONGER PUNCH AND COULD BE DESCRIBED AS "BARRELING" VS
"LIMPING" AS WITH TONIGHT. THIS WILL EQUATE TO MUCH STRONGER
WINDS FOR SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AND HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE MEAN WIND GUSTS FOR LOCATIONS LIKE WENATCHEE AP WHICH
IS CURRENTLY UP TO 43 MPH (THIS IS AN AVERAGE OF 50 HIGH
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). THE REGION SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP IN SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL WA
PRIOR TO SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING OVERLAPPING WITH THE WARMEST
AND DRIEST PART OF THE DAY AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE HOT, DRY, WINDY INDEX WHICH IS A
MULTIPLICATION OF VAPOR PRESSURE DEFICIT AND WIND HAS SEVERAL
MEMBERS REACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE AROUND WENATCHEE,
WATERVILLE, AND MOSES LAKE. NEW FIRE STARTS COULD BE CHALLENGING
TO MANAGE IN DRY GRASSES. PLEASE USE CAUTION. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE
OF THE CASCADES AND INTO BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND GUST POTENTIAL WILL BACK INTO THE
25-35 MPH RANGE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 70S.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY: MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHORTWAVE DRIVING SATURDAY'S NIGHT COLD FRONT WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AROUND OR-ID-WA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BLOSSOMS UPSTREAM INTO ALASKA. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS
EXACTLY WHERE, 50 TO 100 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH FROM ANY
PARTICULAR POINT. WHILE COOLER WEATHER IS CERTAIN, THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL
FALL. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE FOR THE SHOWERS TO INITIALLY IMPACT
THE REGION MONDAY BUT WHERE A RICHER AXIS OF MOISTURE SETS UPS
WITH WETTING RAINS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AND ONLY 20% OF THE
ENSEMBLES NOW KEEP IT OVER THE INLAND NW ON TUESDAY WITH TRENDS
GOING SOUTH EACH RUN. NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THESE
SYSTEMS BUT UNWELCOME NEWS FOR A REGION THAT HAS BEEN DRIER THAN
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE SPRING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO GET PULLED INTO THE SAGGING LOW THROUGH THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY, PURCELL TRENCH, AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. /SB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z
THURSDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN OVER
CENTRAL WA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD (03-06Z THURSDAY) AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN BETWEEN 06-12Z THURSDAY A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COMES IN FROM THE SOUTH,
COMING TOWARD THE CASCADES AND WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN. THIS WILL
BRING A RISK TO EAT/MWH DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND REACH PUW-GEG
JUST NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR 17-21Z. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA/-TSRA
IMPACTING MWH OVERNIGHT AND LOW FOR -TSRA AT EAT. MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -TSRA TO EAT IF THREAT INCREASES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 58 79 47 81 53 86 / 0 30 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 57 78 48 80 52 87 / 0 30 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 55 75 47 79 52 85 / 0 30 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 61 84 53 87 57 93 / 0 40 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 55 78 39 79 48 85 / 0 40 20 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 57 79 46 79 51 85 / 0 30 20 0 0 0
KELLOGG 60 76 51 78 57 87 / 0 30 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 60 83 46 85 54 91 / 20 30 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 62 80 50 84 60 89 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
OMAK 59 81 43 83 55 87 / 10 50 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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