461
FXUS66 KOTX 290917
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
217 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
- ELEVATED RISK FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD IN GRASSY AREAS OF CENTRAL
WASHINGTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARM ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY EVENING
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL DELIVER ANOTHER WARMUP BEFORE COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RADAR
IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING UP
INTO CENTRAL WA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THIS BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS, FORCING WITH
THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 700-500MB MU CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG WILL
LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE QUICK MOVING FRONT
HOWEVER, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT REACHES
CENTRAL WA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL WITH ANY NEW OR EXISTING
FIRES. OVER NE WA AND THE N IDAHO PANHANDLE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING HIGHER CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES AROUND 400-800
J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS SUPPORTING A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO QUIETER CONDITIONS BUT WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS ABOVE 580 DAM IS THE COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WON'T
BE MUCH ON FRIDAY AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. AND ON
SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB EVEN FURTHER WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY (WEDNESDAY).
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE PASSES
THROUGH WITH THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PASSING NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG
DRY COLD FRONT, AS A STRONG THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN WA/N IDAHO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL SHOWN BY THE
ENSEMBLES TO OCCUR IN CENTRAL WA. THE NBM IS GIVING WENATCHEE A
90% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH, WITH A 60% CHANCE OF
PEAK GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A PROBLEM
WITH ANY NEW FIRE STARTS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE 00Z ENSEMBLES FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WEEKEND TROUGH IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT WHICH THEN LINGERS
INTO MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF POP'S
MAY BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THIS RECENT MODEL CHANGE. HOWEVER THERE
ARE STILL SOME ENSEMBLES SHOW A TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ALL THIS SAID, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING HOW MUCH, IF ANY, RAIN OCCURS THE INLAND NW FOR THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. JW
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE -SHRA/-TSRA WILL
STARTS NEAR THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL WA (EAT/MWH) 12-18Z,
EXPANDING TO EAST WA/ID BETWEEN 18-00Z (GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS.
BRIEF DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH ANY
T-STORMS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, GUSTING
20-30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING AFTER 03Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA STARTING AT 17-18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AT 12Z FOR KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-
KPUW-KMWH, SO VCTS OR TSRA ARE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 79 46 81 54 88 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 79 48 81 54 88 52 / 30 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 74 46 80 54 86 49 / 20 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 85 54 88 59 93 57 / 20 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 79 40 80 44 85 46 / 50 10 0 0 0 20
SANDPOINT 79 49 81 51 87 52 / 30 20 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 76 52 79 57 88 52 / 30 10 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 83 46 86 55 91 51 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 79 51 85 61 90 53 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 81 46 84 54 89 49 / 30 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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