897
FXUS66 KOTX 292303
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
403 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DECREASING SHOWERS AND WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT
- ELEVATED RISK FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD IN GRASSY AREAS OF CENTRAL
WASHINGTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARM ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY EVENING
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL DELIVER ANOTHER WARMUP BEFORE COOLER
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DRIER AIR IS FILLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BRING QUIETER
CONDITIONS. THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT AS COOL AS
PREVIOUS FRONTS, KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO THE WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE PASSES
THROUGH AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS KEEPING NORTH OF
THE INLAND NORTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG DRY
COLD FRONT, AS A STRONG THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN WA/N IDAHO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL SHOWN BY THE
ENSEMBLES TO OCCUR IN CENTRAL WA AND THROUGH THE CASCADES
VALLEYS. THE NBM HAS PULLED BACK THE PROBABILITIES OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. THE NBM IS GIVING WENATCHEE A 50% CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH, WITH A 40% CHANCE OF PEAK GUSTS
REACHING 50 MPH. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A PROBLEM WITH ANY NEW
FIRE STARTS. /JDC
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE 12Z ENSEMBLES FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WEEKEND TROUGH IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT WHICH THEN LINGERS
INTO MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF POP'S
MAY BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THIS RECENT MODEL CHANGE. HOWEVER THERE
ARE STILL SOME ENSEMBLES SHOW A TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ALL THIS SAID, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING HOW MUCH, IF ANY, RAIN OCCURS THE INLAND NW FOR THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. JW
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA,
WINDS ARE STILL OVERALL GUSTY AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT 20-25
KTS THROUGH 02-04Z. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT FIRE OFF DUE TO THE
LIFT FROM THE FRONT, BUT SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR CURRENT COVERAGE TO MENTION ANY
DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. BY 11/12Z TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DROPPING BY 2-4Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-
KMWH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO VCTS OR TSRA ARE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 80 54 87 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 47 79 53 87 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
PULLMAN 46 79 54 85 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
LEWISTON 53 86 57 94 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
COLVILLE 43 79 49 86 46 73 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
SANDPOINT 48 79 51 86 52 73 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
KELLOGG 50 78 58 88 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
MOSES LAKE 46 85 55 91 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 51 85 61 90 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 46 82 54 88 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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