440
FXUS66 KOTX 301807
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1107 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR HEATRISK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- STRONG WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL
WASHINGTON.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST.
STRONG WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A DRY COLD
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 16-18C RANGE. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER INTO
TO 18-20C RANGE. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WARM
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY: THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT (12 TO 15MB BETWEEN PDX-GEG)
SETTING UP ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT CREATING
GUSTY CONDITIONS. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX IS
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL WASHINGTON FOR ANOMALOUS WIND GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MATCHES THE THINKING IN THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON WITH A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH IN WENATCHEE AND AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE
IN EPHRATA. FOR GREATER THAN 60 MPH, THERE IS A 25% CHANCE IN
WENATCHEE AND A 40% CHANCE IN EPHRATA. THESE WINDS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF DRY GRASSES. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES, LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWING
AROUND, AND CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
THESE WINDS.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODELS KEEP THE INLAND NORTHWEST UNDER A
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH IDAHO THROUGH THE
WEEK AS EMBEDDED SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVE THROUGH. NO
SYSTEM STICKS OUT AS PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN SPECIFIC DETAILS. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS.
CLOUDS START TO THICKEN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 80 53 87 50 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 80 53 87 51 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 79 53 85 47 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 87 57 93 57 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 80 48 86 44 73 41 / 0 0 0 10 0 10
SANDPOINT 79 52 86 52 73 45 / 0 0 0 10 0 10
KELLOGG 77 57 88 52 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 85 54 91 49 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 84 61 89 52 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 83 55 88 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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