477
FXUS66 KOTX 310810
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
110 AM PDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR HEATRISK SATURDAY.
- STRONG WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES
AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. STRONG WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A DRY COLD WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ELEVATED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
18-20C RANGE, WITH CORRESPONDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE
WASHINGTON TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED IT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO ONLY SEEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE CROSS- CASCADE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ON
THE WEST SIDE AND THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. BETWEEN PDX- GEG, A PRESSURE GRADIENT OF +12 TO 14
MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND ACROSS THE LEE OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. THE NBM CONTINUES TO GIVE HIGH PROBABILITIES (95
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH IN WENATCHEE
AND EPHRATA. IN FACT, THE NBM IS GIVING WENATCHEE A 45% CHANCE
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH. FOR WIND GUSTS, THERE IS AN
80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH FOR
WENATCHEE AND EPHRATA AND A 35% CHANCE FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 60
MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20 PERCENT
RANGE WILL BRING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD BETWEEN
4-7PM, WITH RHS BEGINNING TO INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENING.
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES, LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWING AROUND, PATCHY
BLOWING DUST, AND CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
WITH THESE WINDS.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES
CRASHING FROM 0.60-0.90 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO 0.20-0.40
INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER,
BUT MINIMUM RHS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. CONTINUED BREEZY WEST
TO NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE RISK ELEVATED, BUT IT DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE AS CONCERNING AS SATURDAY. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIVE COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALUES COOLING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. RIGHT NOW, MODELS KEEP MONDAY MORNING'S LOWS
ABOVE FROST ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NBM GIVES COLVILLE A 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW TEMP BELOW 37 DEGREES MONDAY MORNING WITH
EVERYWHERE ELSE BELOW 10 PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODELS KEEP THE INLAND NORTHWEST UNDER A
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
IDAHO ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER AND WIDESPREAD BREEZY WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEK AS EMBEDDED SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVE
THROUGH. /VMT
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 21-00Z STARTING IN
CENTRAL WA AND SPREAD EAST AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE OCCURS.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON BETWEEN
00-05Z, INCLUDING KEAT, KEPH, KMWH, AND KOMK, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 45
KNOTS. FOR KGEG, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 18-25 KNOTS
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (90% CHANCE) FOR
PEAK WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KT AT KEPH AND KEAT WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE (50-60% CHANCE) FOR KMWH AND KOMK. FOR GREATER THAN
50 KNOT WIND GUSTS, THERE IS A 45% CHANCE AT KEAT AND A 60%
CHANCE AT KEPH. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35KT AT KGEG.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 86 49 74 48 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 87 49 73 45 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 83 46 69 44 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 92 54 77 49 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 85 42 73 41 73 41 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 86 51 73 44 73 45 / 0 10 0 0 10 0
KELLOGG 87 49 68 47 68 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
MOSES LAKE 91 46 78 48 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 88 51 77 51 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 89 45 76 46 78 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE
AREA-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA.
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEWISTON AREA.
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