334
FXUS66 KOTX 221146
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
446 AM PDT SUN JUN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREA SUNDAY.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK.
- STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPSIS
A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO
THE NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE LARGE CLOSED THAT HAS MOSTLY
SPARED THE REGION FROM SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (SO FAR) HAS
SHIFTED EAST INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST INTO WESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON PLACING THE REGION IN A
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING FOR THE PALOUSE, LC VALLEY, AND THE
CAMAS PRAIRIE. THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SB CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG
COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR STORMS TO PERSIST THAT TO DEVELOP, WITH THE FLOW PATTERN
ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF NE WA
INTO THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, BRIEF DOWNPOURS, AND SMALL HAIL
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TONIGHT A
MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NE
WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES
ALIVE, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY LASTING BEYOND SUNSET WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. ON MONDAY THIS WAVE
EXITS WITH SOME WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT. YET THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT LESS IN COVERAGE
COMPARED TO TODAY. MONDAY CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END DURING
THE EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A BRIEF SURGE IN TEMPERATURES OCCURS
TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 20C WILL TRANSLATE TO MOST TOWNS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK DOWN, CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE
JUNE. JW
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
LOCAL EXCEPTIONS ON THE PALOUSE AND NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE. KPUW
HAS A 60-90% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 18Z. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED AROUND KPUW/KLWS STRETCHING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE
CONVECTION WILL SPARK IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 18-21Z
SUNDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE TAF SITES (PRIMARILY
KGEG-KSFF- KCOE) AFTER 00Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KEAT/KMWH. FOR KGEG THE HREF SHOWS A 30% CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z BUT WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF
THIS OCCURRING. FOR KPUW, HREF SHOWS NEAR AN 80% CHANCE THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN BEFORE 18Z, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 71 51 77 51 86 58 / 20 60 20 0 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 68 50 75 51 84 57 / 30 80 30 10 0 10
PULLMAN 66 45 74 46 82 53 / 60 30 10 0 0 10
LEWISTON 72 52 82 55 90 62 / 80 20 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 70 45 74 41 81 48 / 70 90 50 20 20 30
SANDPOINT 67 49 70 46 80 53 / 60 90 60 30 10 20
KELLOGG 65 49 71 52 81 59 / 60 80 40 10 0 10
MOSES LAKE 78 49 84 53 90 61 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 79 56 83 59 88 63 / 40 10 10 0 0 0
OMAK 75 49 81 53 86 56 / 60 50 20 10 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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