899
FXUS66 KOTX 221855
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1155 AM PDT SUN JUN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREA SUNDAY.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK.
- STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED A LITTLE BIT MORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS FROM THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS
TO NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF SEEING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BECOME ORGANIZED, AND MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNY'S
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. /SVH
SYNOPSIS
A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE NORTH
IDAHO PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEK OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A FORECAST UPDATE SENT OUT THIS MORNING TO ENHANCE THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL A BIT. MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT HAS SET THE STAGE FOR A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. SURFACE BASED
CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE UP TO AROUND 500-750 J/KG WITH A
SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 30-40
KTS. THE DISTINCTIVE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN SLIDING
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO MAKE ITS ENTRANCE INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST AROUND 3:00
PM THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S NOT A PARTICULARLY STRONG SHORTWAVE, BUT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAK TODAY AS WELL, AND IT WON'T TAKE
MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO GET CONVECTION TO INITIATE TODAY.
THERE IS A CONCERN FOR CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. STEERING FLOW WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15-20
MPH. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE SPOKANE/COEUR
D'ALENE CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6-9 PM THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCLUDE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNY'S,
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35 MPH, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BE
SURE TO HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IF PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
/SVH
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS BC WILL ALSO HELP TO FORCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND A NORTHERLY STEERING
FLOW WILL DIRECT THUNDERSTORMS OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN OVER TO THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 00-05Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KOMK-KCQV-
KSZT-KDEW-KGEG-KSFF-KOCE, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KEPH-KMWH-KPUW
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL,
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO KGEG-KSFF-KCOE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE CAVEAT AT KGEG-KSFF-KCOE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE CORRIDOR BETWEEN
00-05Z. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 49 77 51 86 58 81 / 60 20 0 0 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 49 75 51 84 57 80 / 70 30 10 0 10 10
PULLMAN 45 74 46 82 53 78 / 20 10 0 0 10 0
LEWISTON 52 82 55 90 62 87 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 39 74 41 81 48 78 / 80 50 20 20 30 40
SANDPOINT 47 70 46 80 53 78 / 90 60 30 10 20 30
KELLOGG 50 71 52 81 59 77 / 80 40 10 0 10 20
MOSES LAKE 50 84 53 90 61 86 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 57 83 59 88 63 83 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 49 81 53 86 56 83 / 60 20 10 10 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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