862
FXUS66 KOTX 230916
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
216 AM PDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THURSDAY.
- A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE OCCASIONAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MOST DAYS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IDAHO PANHANDLE, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN COOL BACK TO NORMAL
VALUES BY THURSDAY, BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WETTING
RAINS LAST NIGHT OVER NE WASHINGTON AND THE ID PANHANDLE WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO MONTANA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE QUICKLY
REPLACES IT LEADING TO A WARMER AND DRIER DAY OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. YET A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEWPOINTS STARTING OFF IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO CUMULUS QUICKLY FORMING OVER THE
REGION, WITH ENOUGH INSTABILTY FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS,
AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THIS PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY HOWEVER,
WITH THE MAIN AFFECT FOR THE REGION BEING PASSING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS, AND POSSIBLE SPRINKLES AT TIMES. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILTY
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
JET AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING
ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. HIGH TEMPERATUERS SATURDAY WARM INTO
THE 80S, AND THEN MID 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY. A PEAK OUT TO
NEXT MONDAY HIGHS WARM FURTHER INTO THE 90S WITH MAYBE EVEN A
FEW TRIPLE DIGITS. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS LEFT IN THE WAVE OF EVENING
RAIN OVER NE WA/N IDAHO PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN WA/N IDAHO OVERNIGHT BUT DECREASING HEADING
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS EAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
TO JUST PATCHY COVERAGE. MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE ID
PANHANDLE INCLUDING KCOE AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL AND SE WASHINGTON INTO THE LEWISTON AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE THROUGH 15Z MONDAY DUE TO A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER THE AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FOR CENTRAL AND SE WASHINGTON INTO THE LEWISTON AREA
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 77 51 86 60 82 55 / 10 0 0 10 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 74 50 83 58 81 55 / 20 0 0 10 10 10
PULLMAN 74 47 84 55 78 51 / 10 0 0 10 0 10
LEWISTON 82 55 91 63 88 61 / 0 0 0 10 0 10
COLVILLE 74 41 81 48 80 45 / 20 10 10 30 20 30
SANDPOINT 70 47 81 54 79 52 / 30 20 10 20 20 30
KELLOGG 71 53 81 60 78 57 / 40 10 0 10 10 10
MOSES LAKE 83 52 90 59 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 83 60 88 63 83 58 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
OMAK 80 53 86 56 84 54 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page