879
FXUS66 KOTX 231204
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
504 AM PDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THURSDAY.
- A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE OCCASIONAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MOST DAYS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IDAHO PANHANDLE, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN COOL BACK TO NORMAL
VALUES BY THURSDAY, BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
WETTING RAINS LAST NIGHT OVER NE WASHINGTON AND THE ID PANHANDLE
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO MONTANA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY
REPLACES IT LEADING TO A WARMER AND DRIER DAY OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. YET A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEWPOINTS STARTING OFF IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO CUMULUS QUICKLY FORMING OVER THE
REGION WITH ENOUGH INSTABILTY FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS,
AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THIS PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY HOWEVER,
WITH THE MAIN EFFECT FOR THE REGION BEING PASSING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SPRINKLES AT TIMES. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILTY
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER JET AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING
ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WARM
INTO THE 80S, AND THEN MID 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY. A PEEK OUT
TO NEXT MONDAY SHOWS HIGHS WARMING FURTHER INTO THE 90S WITH
MAYBE EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS. JW
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND RAIN OVER NE WA/N IDAHO PANHANDLE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WAVE
BRINGING THE SHOWERS SHIFTS EAST. SKIES CLEARED OUT OVERNIGHT
MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF RARE
LATE JUNE FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WA AND
NORTH ID. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT
GEG, SFF, AND COE. FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BURN
OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE HIGH SUMMER SUN ANGLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD..
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN FOG BURNING OFF AT GEG/SFF/COE BY 15-16Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 77 51 86 60 82 55 / 10 0 0 10 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 74 50 83 58 81 55 / 20 0 0 10 10 10
PULLMAN 74 47 84 55 78 51 / 10 0 0 10 0 10
LEWISTON 82 55 91 63 88 61 / 0 0 0 10 0 10
COLVILLE 74 41 81 48 80 45 / 20 10 10 30 20 30
SANDPOINT 70 47 81 54 79 52 / 30 20 10 20 20 30
KELLOGG 71 53 81 60 78 57 / 40 10 0 10 10 10
MOSES LAKE 83 52 90 59 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 83 60 88 63 83 58 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
OMAK 80 53 86 56 84 54 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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