009
FXUS66 KOTX 240513
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1013 PM PDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THURSDAY.
- A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE OCCASIONAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MOST DAYS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IDAHO PANHANDLE, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, THEN COOL BACK TO NORMAL
VALUES BY THURSDAY, BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND MILD IN THE 70S
AND 80S AS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (10-20% CHANCE) OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND 250-500 J/KG. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SINGLE CELLS IN THIS WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
TODAY. TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S. A SIMILAR REGIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WHERE THERE IS A 10-20%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF COOLDOWN INTO THE 70S AND 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND 90S AGAIN. MONDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MONTANA. PROBABILITIES OF HIGH
TEMPS AT LEAST 100 DEGREES MONDAY - WENATCHEE: 40%, MOSES LAKE: 40%,
LEWISTON: 80%, DOWNTOWN SPOKANE: 40%, OMAK: 20%, PULLMAN: 20%.
DB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY. SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AROUND
COLVILLE, AND SANDPOINT BETWEEN 09Z-15Z TUE. OTHERWISE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 51 86 58 82 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 50 84 58 81 54 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
PULLMAN 47 83 54 79 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 55 92 63 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 42 82 47 80 44 76 / 10 10 10 30 20 20
SANDPOINT 46 81 53 79 52 74 / 10 0 10 20 10 10
KELLOGG 53 81 60 78 56 73 / 0 0 0 10 10 0
MOSES LAKE 53 91 58 86 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 60 89 63 83 59 80 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
OMAK 53 87 55 84 53 79 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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