164
FXUS66 KOTX 250751
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1251 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN OF MODERATE AND MAJOR HEATRISK BY MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE OCCASIONAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MOST DAYS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IDAHO PANHANDLE, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY THEN COOLING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THE BEST CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE WEAK
LIFT, OROGRAPHICS, AND MODEST INSTABILITY (100-400 J/KG OF
SBCAPE) SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 15-25% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE (CAMAS PRAIRIE INTO NEZ PERCE COUNTY) IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FOR FRIDAY. RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL
TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES (+8MB
TO +11MB BETWEEN PDX AND GEG) WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH COMMON IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES
AND THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN EACH AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST,
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S TO UPPER 80S, THEN WILL COOL INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWS WIDESPREAD 90S TO LOW 100S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE AND MAJOR HEATRISK
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER WANES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILES FOR MAX TEMPERTUARES INCREASING AS 30% OF ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS SUGGEST A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LEAN TOWARD THIS IDEA, WITH
SOME HINTS OF ELEVATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN
THIS IS STILL FAR OUT, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW, BUT
IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. /VMT
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MID-
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 27 KNOTS.
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTH IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. MOST CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) SHOW WEAK
SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS LWS AND STRONGER SHOWERS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE HREF GIVING A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDER
AT LWS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT LWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 83 56 78 53 77 52 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 83 56 77 54 75 53 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
PULLMAN 80 51 75 48 73 47 / 10 10 0 10 0 0
LEWISTON 90 62 84 60 83 57 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 82 45 76 46 75 43 / 40 20 30 30 30 10
SANDPOINT 80 53 75 53 72 50 / 30 20 20 30 20 10
KELLOGG 79 57 74 55 71 54 / 10 10 10 10 10 0
MOSES LAKE 88 54 81 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 84 59 79 57 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 85 53 79 52 79 50 / 20 10 10 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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