889
FXUS66 KOTX 261136
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
436 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODERATE AND MAJOR HEATRISK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IDAHO PANHANDLE, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE WORK WEEK WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS BROAD TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DECREASES FURTHER SOUTH
WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAKER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDER
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
SHOWERS WILL REEMERGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SHRINK COVERAGE. CROSS-CASCADE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. WINDS WILL PICK UP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AS A RESPONSE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON, SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO
750-700MB LOOKS TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
TROUGH TO EXIT TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S TO LOW 100S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY, THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS IS GIVING THE L-C VALLEY AND LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN A 60+ PERCENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS ABOVE 100F.
PROBABILITIES REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY, BUT INCREASE TO 50-60% FOR
DOWNTOWN AND NORTH SPOKANE. HEATRISK WILL BE IN THE MINOR TO
MODERATE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY, THEN INCREASING TO MODERATE TO MAJOR
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAJOR HEATRISK WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE L-C VALLEY BOTH DAYS WITH MAJOR
HEATRISK SNEAKING INTO THE SPOKANE-COEUR DALENE METRO AREA ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM INTO WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT VALUES BEGINS TO WANE WITH AN INCREASE IN
THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
CAN BE SEEN IN THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES FOR
MAX TEMPERATURES, WHICH INCREASES FROM 4-5F ON TUESDAY TO 7-11F ON
WEDNESDAY TO 10-14F ON THURSDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION EARLY TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING REMAINS
LOW. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA, WITH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND OVERALL STRENGTH BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
LOW HOVERS FURTHER NORTH, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WOULD ALLOW FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION, WHICH WOULD THEN INCREASE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. COMBINED
WITH OROGRAPHICS AND MODEST LIFT FROM THE LOW, THIS WOULD INTRODUCE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WHILE THIS IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPING POPS AND THUNDER CHANCES BETWEEN 10%, THIS
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. /VMT
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. BREEZY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON THROUGH
THE MORNING. EXPECT AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 78 54 77 52 80 53 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 78 55 75 53 78 52 / 10 20 10 0 0 0
PULLMAN 75 50 74 48 76 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 84 60 83 59 86 58 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 77 45 74 43 79 44 / 20 30 40 10 10 0
SANDPOINT 76 54 72 50 76 47 / 20 40 30 10 10 0
KELLOGG 74 57 71 56 74 55 / 10 20 10 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 81 53 82 52 85 55 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 80 58 79 58 84 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 80 53 79 51 83 53 / 10 20 10 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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