828
FXUS66 KOTX 280511
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1011 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK INCLUDING MODERATE AND MAJOR HEATRISK ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO MAINLY THE 90S ON MONDAY AND
MID 90S TUESDAY WITH A FEW AREAS APPROACHING AROUND 100
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HELPING SUPPORT AND SUSTAIN CHANCES (20-
40%) OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. CAN'T RULE
OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO GIVEN THERE IS NON-ZERO INSTABILITY
MAXING OUT AT 100 J/KG IN FAR NE WA AND N ID, KEPT 15% CHANCE OF
THUNDER. AT THE SFC, BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST UP TO 15-25MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW
TOMORROW THAT COULD BRING A COUPLE ADDITION SHOWERS TO FAR NE WA AND
N ID, THOUGH CHANCES MAXING OUT NEAR 15% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE RIDGE WILL BE AMPLIFYING OFF THE NW
PACIFIC. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL KICK OFF THE WARMING TREND AS
IT CONTINUES TO BUILD AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR IMPACTFUL HEAT ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SUPPORTING THE CONFIDENCE, NBM 25-75
PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD HAS REDUCED TO JUST 2-3 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO 95-100 DEGREE
RANGE. THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES IS
80% OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA AND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE ID PANHANDLE MONDAY. TEMPS WILL CREEP UP
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AS THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING GREATER THAN 95
DEGREES IS 85% OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA
TUESDAY. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERED WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.
THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE OUT LATE TUESDAY, MEANWHILE, A SUBTLE
LEAVE WAVE LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OF A DEEPER TROUGH FORMING IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN LOW WITH
NBM CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH 10%
OR SO CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PERIOD.
AS HEIGHTS SUBTLY FALL WEDNESDAY, TEMPS SHOULD COOL BY A FEW
DEGREES. THAT SAID, MODEL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
REMAIN HIGH, AT AROUND 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE SO IT REMAINS AN
AREA OF RELATIVE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
INLAND NW TONIGHT, AND THEN ON SATURDAY DAYTIME HEATING WILL
LEAD TO FLAT CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NE WASHINGTON
INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AROUND 03-04Z
SUNDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 51 79 52 87 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 53 78 52 84 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 47 75 48 84 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 58 83 58 92 61 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 43 78 43 85 48 92 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 50 75 47 83 50 90 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 55 73 55 82 59 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 52 84 53 91 58 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 58 83 59 90 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 51 82 53 89 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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