527
FXUS66 KOTX 280740
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1240 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING MODERATE HEATRISK MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER BUT STILL WARM THURSDAY AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY
- A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST NEXT 7
DAYS
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO MAINLY THE 90S ON
MONDAY AND MID 90S TUESDAY WITH A FEW AREAS NEAR 100 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENCE
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RAPID WARM UP.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM
TO 23-26C, TRANSLATING TO VALLEYS HIGHS IN THE 90S, WITH THE
HOTTEST LOCATIONS NEAR 100F. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE HEATRISK
ACROSS THE REGION, IMPACTING MOST INDIVIDUALS SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE
HYDRATION.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY: THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LOOK WARM AND MAINLY DRY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLING ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME FORECAST DETAILS STILL TO BE IRONED OUT. ONE IS
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST WEDNESDAY COULD BE AS HOT AS TUESDAY, OR JUST 1-2
DEGREES COOLER. IT ALL HAD TO DO WITH TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST.
THE FIRST IS A LOW ALONG THE CA COAST DRAWING UP MOISTURE INTO
OREGON ON TUESDAY, THAT POTENTIALLY GETS PICKED UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW, REACHING SE WA INTO THE ID PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND IS THE LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. 40% OF THE CLUSTERS SHOW A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA, PROVIDING ADDED COOLING ACROSS THE INLAND
NW AND BREEZY WINDS. THE OTHER 60% SHOW ONLY A WEAKER WAVE AND
ONLY SLIGHT COOLING BY THURSDAY. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE IF THE
STRONGER SCENARIO VERIFIES THAT THE THREAT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION EXPANDS INTO MORE OF EASTERN WA ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY LOW LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK, AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTION POTENTIAL, MAINTAINED THE LOW
5-15% POP'S FROM THE NBM SUPPORTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME EXPANSION OF A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE FOR MID WEEK. GIVEN THE DRYING OUT OF FUELS ANY LIGHTNING
WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE STARTS. HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY, THERE AGAIN REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT
APPROXIMATELY 80% OF THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A WARM AND DRY
FORECAST. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
INLAND NW TONIGHT, AND THEN ON SATURDAY DAYTIME HEATING WILL
LEAD TO FLAT CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NE WASHINGTON
INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AROUND 03-04Z
SUNDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 79 52 86 57 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 77 53 85 56 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 75 48 84 52 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 85 58 92 62 99 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 78 43 85 48 92 52 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 75 48 84 51 90 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 73 55 83 59 90 64 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 84 53 91 57 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 83 59 90 66 97 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 83 53 90 59 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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