198
FXUS66 KOTX 290804
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
104 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING MUCH WARMER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
INCLUDING MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER BUT STILL WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
- A 20% CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH WARMER BEGINNING SUNDAY, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENCE
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RAPID WARM UP.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS AS 850MB
TEMPS WARM TO 23-26C, TRANSLATING TO VALLEYS HIGHS IN THE 90S,
WITH THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS NEAR 100F. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE REGION, IMPACTING THOSE
WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION, AND HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE LEAVENWORTH AREA AND THE METHOW VALLEY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
OF THE SLOW RIDGE BREAK DOWN, WITH NOW 85% SUPPORTING A SLOW
BREAKDOWN (UP FROM 60% YESTERDAY). MOISTURE COMING UP FROM OREGON
INTO SE WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO
125-150% OF NORMAL AND ALSO SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH. THIS
RAISES CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT WITHOUT ADEQUATE FORCING TO
STRAY MUCH FROM THE NBM POPS. YET WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
DID EXPAND THE AREA WITH A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCLUDE THE
PALOUSE AND LC VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE NBM IS ALSO CARRYING A 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE, WITH ANY STRIKES A CONCERN FOR
NEW FIRE STARTS. FOR THURSDAY, INDEPENDENCE DAY, AND SATURDAY
ABOUT 80% OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A LOWER OF MOISTURE CONTENT
AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION AS SOME INCREASE IN
WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS. THERE IS A MINORITY THAT SHOW THE FLOW
REMAINING MORE SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THAT OUTCOME WITH A
WARM AND DRY FORECAST MAINTAINED.
THE GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS
STARTING WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS. THIS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE REGION THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN, AT
SPEEDS 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTH IDAHO. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 85 57 92 61 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 84 56 92 60 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 83 53 91 58 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 91 62 99 67 101 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 85 48 92 52 95 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 83 52 90 54 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 81 59 90 64 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 91 57 97 62 101 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 90 66 97 69 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 90 59 96 62 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
CHELAN COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES
LAKE AREA-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN
VALLEY-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON
PALOUSE-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN
OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COEUR
D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE
COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
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