648
FXUS66 KOTX 010457
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
957 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TUESDAY INCLUDING MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK.
- A 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- NOT AS HOT THURSDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S WITH THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS NEAR 100 DEGREES. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL DELIVER A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LITTLE RAIN. DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROMOTES ADDITIONAL WARMING. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR
HEATRISK CONTINUED TO BE FORECAST WITH MOSES LAKE, LEWISTON, AND
DOWNTOWN WENATCHEE AND OMAK SOME LOCATIONS FORECAST TO HIT THE
100F MARK.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER
OREGON GETS PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, WITH AN
AXIS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRACKING ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM MOSES LAKE TO GRAND COULEE TO COLVILLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CAM'S MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON ELEVATED CONVECTION
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS, BUT WITH SOME EMBEDDED
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL LIGHTNING. WITH
700-500MB MU CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG AND IT BEING WITHIN THE 0 TO
-20C THERMAL LAYER, CAN NOT RULED OUT A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE ID PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST STORM MOTION, AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER, RAIN REACHING
THE GROUND IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
CONCERN OF POTENTIAL NEW FIRE STARTS WITH ANY LIGHTNING THAT
DOES OCCUR.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: ATTENTION TURNS TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL WA AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE WENATCHEE AREA, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND
MOSES LAKE AREA. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WITH ANY NEW FIRE STARTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL BC
RESULTS IN INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. HEADING INTO INDEPENDENCE
DAY ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE IS SHOWN BY THE ENSEMBLES TO PASS TO
OUR SOUTH ACROSS OREGON. THE BULK OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
SOME OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES TRACK PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH
INTO SE WA AND THE SOUTH ID PANHANDLE, WITH 20 PERCENT OF THE
MEMBERS PRODUCING A WETTING RAIN FOR PULLMAN. CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST LEANS TO THE MAJORITY OF A DRY SCENARIO BUT THIS
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND IT'S A SIMILAR STORY WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST FAVORED
ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT 80-90% OF THE ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT A DRY SCENARIO. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 61 96 63 91 58 84 / 0 0 0 20 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 60 94 63 91 58 81 / 0 0 0 20 10 0
PULLMAN 57 94 61 87 54 81 / 0 0 0 20 10 0
LEWISTON 65 102 70 96 63 89 / 0 0 0 20 10 10
COLVILLE 53 94 54 91 49 84 / 0 0 0 20 0 0
SANDPOINT 55 91 57 88 54 81 / 0 0 0 20 10 0
KELLOGG 65 91 67 87 60 81 / 0 0 0 20 10 10
MOSES LAKE 61 100 63 95 57 88 / 0 0 0 20 0 0
WENATCHEE 70 99 68 92 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 62 99 62 95 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES
(ZONE 705)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU
(ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COEUR D'ALENE AREA-
IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-
LEWISTON AREA-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page