761
FXUS66 KOTX 021203
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
503 AM PDT WED JUL 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- NOT AS HOT THURSDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE HIGH 90S BY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL DELIVER A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LITTLE
RAIN. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY BEFORE
HEATING BACK UP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: WITH THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE CURRENT WARMUP
PAST US, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY
WERE YESTERDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL USHER IN A TROUGH THROUGH THE
STATE OF WASHINGTON, BRINGING A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN. LIFT FROM
THE TROUGH BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE, BUT WITH VERY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, LITTLE TO NO RAIN WILL BE
SEEN SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORM. RATHER, THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL
BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE CASCADES, WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS BEING SEEN IN THE WENATCHEE, WATERVILLE PLATEAU,
MOSES LAKE, AND UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN AREAS. WIND GUSTS IN THESE
AREAS COULD REACH 30-35MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUING TO DROP INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SUCH,
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 2PM THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING
FOR THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES,
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WITH THE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER ACROSS THE
STATE COMES RELIEF IN THE FORM OF LOWERED TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL BY INDEPENDENCE DAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ANTICIPATED. CASCADE GAP WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH OF US ON FRIDAY, BUT ONLY FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
THE LEWISTON AREAS WILL SEE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: WHILE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INITIALLY STRUGGLED
ON WHETHER THE EXTENDED FORECAST WOULD SEE RISING OR LOWERING
HEIGHTS, IT IS NOW FAVORING RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS MEANS OUR SHORT BREAK FROM NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT
SUMMER HEAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE BY
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK IN THE 90S FOR MANY AREAS. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MODELS
SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. FOR THEIR 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, THE CPC SHOWS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OR HIGHER OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH NEAR
NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. /AS
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THERE ISN'T MUCH INSTABILITY
FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WORK WITH, SO NOT EXPECTING LIGHTNING WITH
THESE. SOME MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WOULD
HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO, SO ISOLATED STRIKES OF
LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW LATER THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE CASCADE GAPS
AND THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (EAT- EPH- MWH- OMK) WITH WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH WIND GUSTS 20 TO
30 KNOTS FOR KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, AND KLWS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING ANY TAF SITE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 91 58 84 56 81 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 90 57 83 56 81 56 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
PULLMAN 86 52 81 53 76 51 / 10 10 0 10 10 10
LEWISTON 97 63 90 63 87 60 / 0 10 0 10 20 10
COLVILLE 92 48 84 47 83 47 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
SANDPOINT 89 54 82 51 80 51 / 10 10 0 0 10 10
KELLOGG 89 60 81 59 77 57 / 10 10 0 10 20 20
MOSES LAKE 94 57 88 56 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 91 62 86 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 96 56 87 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES
(ZONE 705)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE
703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
(ZONE 707).
ID...NONE.
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