479
FXUS66 KOTX 022141
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
241 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND
POMEROY AREA WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT: AN INCOMING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 9 PM. THIS
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ESPECIALLY BE FELT THROUGH THE CASCADE
GAPS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THE SEATTLE-WENATCHEE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS OF 2 PM AT 11.5 MB. THE WARNING ALSO
INCLUDES THE POMEROY AREA DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY WINDS. THESE
WINDS ARE USHERING IN DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING, LIMITED TO MAINLY THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-90. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DECREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
WINDS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 80S
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: THE FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OREGON,
CENTRAL IDAHO, AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA. YET THE SOUTHERLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW, SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY, INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 125% OF NORMAL, AND AN INCREASE IN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION HAS RESULTED IN AN
INTRODUCTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM
SE WASHINGTON INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. THE NBM
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF THE REGION ACROSS NE OREGON INTO THE CLEARWATERS. YET THERE
IS SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS
ADDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE PALOUSE. THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM SUGGEST STORMS COULD OCCUR EVEN FURTHER NORTH
TOWARDS THE SPOKANE AREA BUT THIS CARRIES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
GIVEN ALL THE OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT VARIABILITY IN MODEL DATA.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AS THE LOW MOVES OUT SATURDAY WILL
SEE A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NE WA/ID PANHANDLE. ON
SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA, WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A BUILDING RIDGE BRINGING
ABOUT WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE 90S TO NEAR
103F IS FORECAST BY THE NBM NEXT WEDNESDAY. JW
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTH IDAHO. GIVEN LOW COVERAGE THERE ISN'T A MENTION IN ANY OF
THE TAF SITES.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE CASCADE GAPS AND THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
(EAT- EPH- MWH- OMK) WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH WIND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR KGEG, KSFF,
KCOE, KPUW, AND KLWS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING ANY TAF SITES. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 56 84 56 82 56 82 / 0 0 0 20 20 0
COEUR D'ALENE 56 82 56 81 56 79 / 0 0 0 20 20 10
PULLMAN 50 80 54 76 51 79 / 10 0 0 40 30 0
LEWISTON 62 89 63 84 60 87 / 10 0 0 50 50 0
COLVILLE 47 83 47 83 48 82 / 0 0 0 20 20 10
SANDPOINT 52 80 51 81 54 78 / 10 0 0 20 20 10
KELLOGG 57 79 59 78 57 78 / 10 0 0 30 40 10
MOSES LAKE 56 88 56 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 20 20 0
WENATCHEE 60 86 61 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 20 20 0
OMAK 55 86 57 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 20 20 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR FOOTHILLS OF
CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705)-LOWER PALOUSE -
SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN
VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
ID...NONE.
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