679  
FXUS66 KOTX 030414  
AFDOTX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA  
914 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND  
POMEROY AREA WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.  
 
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY  
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON.  
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON  
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
UPDATE: RED FLAG WARNINGS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY  
AND GUSTY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADES AND WESTERN BASIN, BUT  
WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES WITH SUNSET RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE  
TO RISE.  
 
TONIGHT: AN INCOMING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO  
PROMOTE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON  
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 9  
PM. THIS WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ESPECIALLY BE FELT THROUGH THE  
CASCADE GAPS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THE SEATTLE-WENATCHEE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS OF 2 PM AT 11.5 MB. THE WARNING ALSO  
INCLUDES THE POMEROY AREA DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY WINDS. THESE  
WINDS ARE USHERING IN DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION  
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING, LIMITED TO MAINLY THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND  
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-90. PRESSURE  
GRADIENTS DECREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING  
WINDS.  
 
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 80S  
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
INDEPENDENCE DAY: THE FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO  
SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OREGON,  
CENTRAL IDAHO, AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA. YET THE SOUTHERLY  
DIFFLUENT FLOW, SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY, INCREASE IN  
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 125% OF NORMAL, AND AN INCREASE IN  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION HAS RESULTED IN AN  
INTRODUCTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM  
SE WASHINGTON INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. THE NBM  
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH  
OF THE REGION ACROSS NE OREGON INTO THE CLEARWATERS. YET THERE  
IS SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS  
ADDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE PALOUSE. THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS WITH  
THIS SYSTEM SUGGEST STORMS COULD OCCUR EVEN FURTHER NORTH  
TOWARDS THE SPOKANE AREA BUT THIS CARRIES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.  
GIVEN ALL THE OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES  
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT VARIABILITY IN MODEL DATA.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AS THE LOW MOVES OUT SATURDAY WILL  
SEE A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CAN  
NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NE WA/ID PANHANDLE. ON  
SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA, WITH  
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH A  
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A BUILDING RIDGE BRINGING  
ABOUT WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE 90S TO NEAR  
103F IS FORECAST BY THE NBM NEXT WEDNESDAY. JW  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORMS ARE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF LEWISTON, BUT  
CURRENTLY THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AWAY FROM TAF SITES.  
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIS EVENING, FOR THE CASCADE  
GAPS AND THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (EAT-EPH-MWH-OMK) WITH WIND  
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS  
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH WIND GUSTS 20  
TO 30 KNOTS FOR KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, AND KLWS. WIND GUSTS  
ABATE AFTER 04-09Z, SLOWEST TOWARD EAT. ADDITIONAL BREEZY  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS NEAR  
15-20KTS.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE  
IN CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS  
IMPACTING ANY TAF SITES.  
 
-----------------------  
 
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:  
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE  
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE  
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE  
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR  
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SPOKANE 56 84 56 82 56 82 / 0 0 0 20 20 0  
COEUR D'ALENE 56 82 56 81 56 79 / 0 0 0 20 20 10  
PULLMAN 50 80 54 76 51 79 / 10 0 0 40 30 0  
LEWISTON 62 89 63 84 60 87 / 10 0 0 50 50 0  
COLVILLE 47 83 47 83 48 82 / 0 0 0 20 20 10  
SANDPOINT 52 80 51 81 54 78 / 10 0 0 20 20 10  
KELLOGG 57 79 59 78 57 78 / 10 0 0 30 40 10  
MOSES LAKE 56 88 56 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 20 20 0  
WENATCHEE 60 86 61 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 20 20 0  
OMAK 55 86 57 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 20 20 0  
 
 
   
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WA...NONE.  
ID...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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