273
FXUS66 KOTX 030856
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
156 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA,
TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER TODAY, WITH HIGHS 6-7 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. SOME BREEZY WINDS REMAIN, BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY'S WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: AS INDEPENDENCE DAY NEARS, MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL USHER A SHORTWAVE IN,
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
SPOKANE AND COEUR D'ALENE, AS WELL AS IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES.
LIFT GENERATED BY THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE 10- 15 PERCENT, BUT A VERY CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT ON BOTH THUNDERSTORM AND RAINFALL POTENTIAL
CONSIDERING THE HOLIDAY. BIGGER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES SATURDAY, AS THE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTO NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN
IDAHO PANHANDLE. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THUNDER FOR THE FAR NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
WARMUP BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. THIS RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING A RETURN TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 90S. RIGHT NOW EXTENDED MODELS SHOW
WEDNESDAY AS THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 90S WITH
PLACES LIKE LEWISTON, WENATCHEE, COLVILLE, MOSES LAKE, AND DEEPER
BASIN AREAS SEEING TRIPLE DIGITS. KEEP AN EYE OUT AS HEAT HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE CALMED DOWN APART FROM EAT, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 30KTS UNTIL 12Z. GEG AND SFF WILL
SEE AN UPTICK IN WINDS AROUND 14Z, AND COE WILL SEE AN UPTICK AT
AROUND 20Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 83 55 82 57 82 55 / 0 0 20 20 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 83 55 80 57 80 55 / 0 0 20 20 10 0
PULLMAN 80 52 75 51 79 51 / 0 0 40 30 0 0
LEWISTON 90 63 82 62 88 60 / 0 10 50 50 0 0
COLVILLE 83 47 84 49 81 48 / 0 0 20 20 20 0
SANDPOINT 81 50 79 54 75 51 / 0 0 20 30 30 10
KELLOGG 79 58 77 58 75 57 / 0 0 30 40 20 0
MOSES LAKE 88 55 85 58 87 56 / 0 0 20 20 0 0
WENATCHEE 86 60 86 62 87 61 / 0 0 20 20 0 0
OMAK 87 57 86 59 87 57 / 0 0 20 20 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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