980
FXUS66 KOTX 032055
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
155 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON, SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE, AND THE NORTH CASCADES ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY, POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS ON
FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE, AND THE NORTH CASCADES. HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON
MONDAY AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS A COUPLE FEATURES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO ALBERTA PROVIDING A COOLER, WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AND MORE IMPORTANT
FEATURE IN TERMS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER IS A SMALLER LOW
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS SE WASHINGTON AND THE
LEWISTON AREA AND CAMAS PRAIRIE FOR A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS INCREASE TO 60% IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE A 20%
CHANCE PUSHES NORTH INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE/COEUR
D'ALENE AREA, AND OVER THE RIDGES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY EVENING, AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AND THERE BEING A BROAD AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER A THREAT OF SHOWERS, BUT ENSEMBLES
CURRENTLY DEPICT COVERAGE OF RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE (20% COVERAGE) OVER MOST OF THE REGION, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER SE WASHINGTON, THE ID PANHANDLE, AND OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (30-40%). YET DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT LOW
POP'S, THE INCREASED LIFT WITH THE INCOMING LOW AND SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH COULD YIELD LOCALIZED AREAS
WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS, PUTTING A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS, THE LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER WASHINGTON
AND NORTH IDAHO CONTINUES TO LOOK UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. ONE BEING SE WASHINGTON INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE LC VALLEY) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 850-500MB MU CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG
POTENTIALLY YIELDING A FEW STORMS. THE SECOND IS OVER THE NORTH
CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE SOME OF THE
CAM'S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED STORMS FORMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND AND TO THE NORTH OF LAKE CHELAN.
CLOUD COVER WILL YIELD A DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE PALOUSE AND LEWISTON AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE WARMER NORTHERN VALLEYS AND
COOLER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OR/SOUTHERN WA HAD THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. BRIEF GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN, PALOUSE, LC VALLEY, AND SPOKANE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO SHOW BREEZY CASCADE GAPS WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AROUND WENATCHEE, CHELAN,
AND VANTAGE. JW
SATURDAY: A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL INTERACT
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM COULD BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING. WHILE THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED,
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF SATURDAY'S SYSTEM, A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WARMING TREND, WITH DRY,
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RETURNING. EACH DAY WILL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES, WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS.
ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING THAT YET AGAIN WE COULD SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST HEAT WAVE. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 90S
TO 105 ARE EXPECTED AS OF THIS FORECAST, WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES BEING DOWN IN THE LC VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN. THIS
COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM HEAT STRESS TO
INCREASED FIRE DANGER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH IN OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WAS WELL, WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER. /KK
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 55 82 58 82 55 88 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 56 82 56 79 56 86 / 0 20 30 10 0 0
PULLMAN 51 73 51 79 50 85 / 0 40 30 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 80 61 86 61 94 / 0 60 30 0 0 0
COLVILLE 46 84 56 82 48 86 / 0 10 30 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 51 81 55 77 51 83 / 0 10 50 20 0 0
KELLOGG 58 77 54 75 57 83 / 0 30 40 20 0 0
MOSES LAKE 55 84 58 87 55 91 / 0 20 20 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 60 86 62 88 61 91 / 0 10 20 0 0 0
OMAK 56 88 59 87 57 91 / 0 10 20 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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