293
FXUS66 KOTX 032333
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
433 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON, SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE, AND THE NORTH CASCADES ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY, POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS ON
FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE, AND THE NORTH CASCADES. HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON
MONDAY AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS A COUPLE FEATURES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO ALBERTA PROVIDING A COOLER, WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AND MORE IMPORTANT
FEATURE IN TERMS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER IS A SMALLER LOW
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS SE WASHINGTON AND THE
LEWISTON AREA AND CAMAS PRAIRIE FOR A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS INCREASE TO 60% IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE A 20% CHANCE
PUSHES NORTH INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE
AREA, AND OVER THE RIDGES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY EVENING, AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AND THERE BEING A BROAD AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER A THREAT OF SHOWERS, BUT ENSEMBLES
CURRENTLY DEPICT COVERAGE OF RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE (20% COVERAGE) OVER MOST OF THE REGION, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER SE WASHINGTON, THE ID PANHANDLE, AND OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (30-40%). YET DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT LOW
POP'S, THE INCREASED LIFT WITH THE INCOMING LOW AND SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH COULD YIELD LOCALIZED AREAS
WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS, PUTTING A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS, THE LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO CONTINUES TO LOOK UNFAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. ONE BEING SE WASHINGTON
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE LC VALLEY)
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 850-500MB MU CAPE OF 200-400
J/KG POTENTIALLY YIELDING A FEW STORMS. THE SECOND IS OVER THE
NORTH CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE SOME
OF THE CAM'S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED STORMS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND AND TO THE NORTH OF LAKE CHELAN.
CLOUD COVER WILL YIELD A DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE PALOUSE AND LEWISTON AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE WARMER NORTHERN VALLEYS AND
COOLER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OR/SOUTHERN WA HAD THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. BRIEF GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN, PALOUSE, LC VALLEY, AND SPOKANE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO SHOW BREEZY CASCADE GAPS WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AROUND WENATCHEE, CHELAN,
AND VANTAGE. JW
SATURDAY: A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL
INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST WA AND THE ID
PANHANDLE. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. WHILE THE OVERALL
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED, CONDITIONS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF SATURDAY'S
SYSTEM, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WARMING
TREND, WITH DRY, UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RETURNING. EACH DAY WILL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAYS. ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING THAT YET AGAIN WE COULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST HEAT WAVE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE HIGH 90S TO 105 ARE EXPECTED AS OF THIS FORECAST, WITH THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES BEING DOWN IN THE LC VALLEY AND COLUMBIA
BASIN. THIS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTS
FROM HEAT STRESS TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH IN
OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WAS WELL, WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. KEEP AN EYE
ON THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER. /KK
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN HEADING INTO FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTH
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND. SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP AFTER 18Z,
WITH THE BEST RISK OVER SOUTHEAST WA AND LOWER ID. CHANCES WERE
INCLUDES NEAR LWS AND PUW. SMALLER CHANCES WILL BE FOUND AT
OTHER TAF SITES. A SLIGHT RISK FOR T-STORMS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH
OF LWS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. SIMILAR WINDS GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS NEAR LWS/PUW AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS NEAR
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW AFTER 18-21Z FRIDAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 55 82 58 82 55 88 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 56 82 56 79 56 86 / 0 20 30 10 0 0
PULLMAN 51 73 51 79 50 85 / 0 40 30 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 80 61 86 61 94 / 0 60 30 0 0 0
COLVILLE 46 84 56 82 48 86 / 0 10 30 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 51 81 55 77 51 83 / 0 10 50 20 0 0
KELLOGG 58 77 54 75 57 83 / 0 30 40 20 0 0
MOSES LAKE 55 84 58 87 55 91 / 0 20 20 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 60 86 62 88 61 91 / 0 10 20 0 0 0
OMAK 56 88 59 87 57 91 / 0 10 20 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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