255
FXUS66 KOTX 190529
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1029 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG COOLER ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL
A BIT BREEZY. AT THIS TIME, WE EXPECT TO LET THE RED FLAG
WARNING EXPIRE THIS EVENING AND THEN WILL REEVALUATE WHETHER AN
ADDITIONAL ONE IS NEEDED FOR A SMALLER AREA TOMORROW.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD THANKS TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON (20-40%) AND THEN
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY (30-60%). IN ADDITION, THE
STEERING FLOW UNDER THE TROUGH IS VERY WEAK SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING ABUNDANT RAIN. THIS IS A HAZARD THAT WE HAVE NOT
FORECAST TOO MANY TIMES THIS SUMMER SO WE'LL NEED TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO PWAT, INSTABILITY, AND STORM MOTION. IF
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DEVELOPS OVER STEEP TERRAIN OR ANY
RECENT LARGE FIRES, THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
WE WILL BEGIN TO MESSAGE THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
BEGINNING MONDAY AND IN TO TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR APART LEAVING MORE STABLE AIR OVER
US LATE IN THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF MARGINAL FIRE DANGER WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL DIURNAL BREEZES, NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK. /AB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: EASTERN WA AND NORTHERN ID WILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 09Z. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. WINDS OCCASIONALLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT, BUT
ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS OR SO IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AT TAF SITES. /KD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 60 84 56 82 58 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 60 84 56 82 58 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 58 80 50 79 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 70 90 61 88 65 85 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
COLVILLE 49 84 48 82 49 78 / 10 10 10 10 10 40
SANDPOINT 55 80 51 79 54 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 30
KELLOGG 63 79 58 78 61 76 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
MOSES LAKE 59 89 56 86 59 85 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 62 87 62 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 30
OMAK 57 89 58 87 60 85 / 10 0 0 10 20 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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