126
FXUS66 KOTX 200611
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1111 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND EXPAND REGIONWIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCARS AND AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF
STORMS.
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY: ASIDE FROM ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF WA AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ID PANHANDLE,
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND OVER
MUCH OF THE BASIN.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH A
30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE NORTH CASCADES, OKANOGAN VALLEY, COLVILLE, SANDPOINT,
AND BONNERS FERRY WILL BE LOOKING AT A 50 TO 80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH A 30% CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE REGION CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH A 40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A 10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY'S
CHANCES ARE LOOKING SIMILAR TO MONDAY'S BUT WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES EXPANDED SOUTHEASTWARD TO INCLUDE DEER PARK, COEUR
D'ALENE, AND KELLOGG. WEAK WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY, INCREASING THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING PARTICULARLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. STORM MOTION, INSTABILITY, AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALL BE IMPORTANT PARAMETERS TO
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD: HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL DWINDLE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. ASIDE
FROM MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL
DIURNAL BREEZINESS, NO HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.
/FEWKES
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY BETWEEN
1300-0400. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN CORES.
NORTHERN TERMINALS INCLUDING BONNERS FERRY, COLVILLE, REPUBLIC,
OMAK, AND WINTHROP COME WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR T-STORMS.
MAINLY THICKENING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE COLUMBIA
BASIN, PALOUSE, AND SPOKANE-CD'A AREA. WIND GUSTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO 15KTS BUT TRENDS ARE FOR LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS VS
SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR T-STORM TO IMPACT OMAK, REPUBLIC, COLVILLE, AND
BONNERS FERRY DIRECTLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 57 81 60 75 56 79 / 0 0 10 30 30 30
COEUR D'ALENE 57 81 59 76 55 77 / 0 0 10 40 40 40
PULLMAN 54 77 54 73 50 79 / 0 0 10 40 20 20
LEWISTON 65 86 65 83 62 87 / 0 0 20 40 10 10
COLVILLE 47 80 49 73 47 77 / 10 30 20 60 50 60
SANDPOINT 52 77 55 73 52 72 / 10 10 10 50 60 70
KELLOGG 59 77 61 70 57 74 / 0 0 10 50 40 50
MOSES LAKE 57 83 61 81 57 87 / 0 0 10 30 20 10
WENATCHEE 62 84 65 79 63 85 / 0 10 10 50 20 30
OMAK 58 87 60 78 58 85 / 0 30 30 70 40 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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