027
FXUS66 KOTX 202126
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
226 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AND EXPAND REGIONWIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCARS AND AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. HIGHEST FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IS ON MONDAY.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY FROM NOON-9PM.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, INCREASING
INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL MEAN STORMS
WILL BE RATHER SLOW-MOVING, INCREASING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
PARTICULARLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 9-10PM BEFORE WINDING
DOWN FOR THE NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, CONDITIONS
WILL STAY MAINLY DRY WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
MONDAY: THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE INTO THE REGION,
FURTHER COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE NORTH CASCADES,
OKANOGAN VALLEY, COLVILLE, SANDPOINT, AND BONNERS FERRY WILL BE
LOOKING AT A 60 TO 90% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A 10 TO 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE GREATER ON MONDAY THAN TODAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
CAPE VALUES AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL HEAVY-RAIN-PRODUCING STORM
CELLS MOVING OVER THE SAME SPOTS IN THE CASCADES WHERE A HANDFUL OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK BURN SCARS ARE LOCATED. FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
REASONS, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHELAN AND OKANOGAN
COUNTIES FROM NOON TO 9PM MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION, THE OTHER AREA TO
WATCH WILL BE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WA AND THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. FOR THIS
AREA, HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND 0-6KM SHEAR MAY ALLOW A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS TO DEVELOP CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
TUESDAY: ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW KEEPS SPINNING OVER THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN
WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE, BUT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXIST
REGIONWIDE.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD: HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL DWINDLE AS THE LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. ASIDE
FROM MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL
DIURNAL BREEZINESS, NO HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.
/FEWKES
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY BETWEEN
1300-0400. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN
CORES. NORTHERN TERMINALS INCLUDING BONNERS FERRY, COLVILLE,
REPUBLIC, OMAK, AND WINTHROP ARE LOOKING AT A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
T-STORMS. MAINLY THICKENING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
COLUMBIA BASIN, PALOUSE, AND SPOKANE-CD'A AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR T-STORMS TO IMPACT OMAK, REPUBLIC, COLVILLE, AND
BONNERS FERRY DIRECTLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 61 71 56 76 55 83 / 10 30 30 40 20 0
COEUR D'ALENE 60 72 56 74 55 83 / 20 50 40 60 30 10
PULLMAN 52 69 48 75 50 81 / 40 50 30 30 10 10
LEWISTON 64 76 62 85 63 91 / 50 60 20 20 10 10
COLVILLE 50 72 46 72 45 81 / 20 70 60 70 40 10
SANDPOINT 55 70 51 70 50 78 / 20 60 60 80 50 10
KELLOGG 60 68 56 71 56 78 / 30 60 50 60 30 10
MOSES LAKE 62 75 57 82 57 89 / 10 30 10 20 10 0
WENATCHEE 65 76 63 82 63 89 / 20 60 30 40 20 0
OMAK 61 79 58 81 56 88 / 20 70 50 60 20 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN
COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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