853
FXUS66 KOTX 221730
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1030 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY. HIGHEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO.
- WARMER WITH BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
MORNING SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RENEWED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS FROM RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
MIDLEVEL LOW WILL PASS THROUGH E WA AND N ID IN THE MORNING.
IN THE AFTERNOON THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT
ALONG A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE VS MONDAY WITH SURFACE
BASED CAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND DISTRIBUTION OF CAPE
THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER OR EXTENDING TOWARD -25C. THIS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS CONTAINING A
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AS IT ONLY INCREASES NEAR
15KTS. HIGHER CAPES WILL COMPENSATE SOME AND MANY HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE A FEW CELLS TRACKING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TIER OF WA AND N ID TUESDAY EVENING THAT WOULD LIKELY NEED TO
BE CLOSE ATTENTION TO. SREF EVEN HAS A 5% FOR A SEVERE STORM.
THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILE. GREATEST RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER COMMUNITIES ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2
INCLUDING SPOKANE-CD'A. ISOLATED T-STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND WENATCHEE, MOSES LAKE, AND INTO RITZVILLE AS WELL. THREAT
SEEMS LOWER FOR PULLMAN, LEWISTON, AND DEARY WITH THE LINE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY AS WE ARE LOSING DAYTIME
HEATING. STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES GIVEN THE
DEEPER INSTABILITY INTO THE ICE GROWTH ZONE.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE FORECAST? THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. IF THESE SHOWERS ARE SLOWER
OR LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE A BIT WEAKER,
DELAYED, AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FOR WEAK RIDGING WEDNESDAY WHICH BEGINS TO
FLATTEN THURSDAY. A TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TENDENCY TO RETROGRADE BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY PLACING THE INLAND IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY'S
FLAT RIDGE WILL DELIVER DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED ON THE TAIL END OF
THE DEPARTING LOW OVER NORTH IDAHO WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NBM
INTRODUCED 20-40% CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH IN THE LEE
OF THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE,
WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE 15-25 MPH
RANGE. AS THE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE WA COAST, THERE WILL BE
10-20% CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER THOUGH THIS COMES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
CELLS TO SET UP SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED, THE INLAND NW WILL BE ENTERING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS. /SB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO CROP UP NEAR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE,
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ANTICIPATED IN KEAT. TODAY, MODELS AGREE
MORE ON INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR NE WA
AND N ID PANHANDLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
LOOK TO END NEAR 00Z. KLWS HAS A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS LATER
IN THE TAF PERIOD, AROUND 21Z THROUGH 00Z. TIMING FOR KEAT
INDICATES SHOWERS ENDING AROUND 00Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP BUT STAY
AT VFR WHILE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH. CHANCE
FOR SOME LOCALIZED MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THIS IN THE TAFS. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SMOKE IN THE
KGEG/KSFF AREA DUE TO THE LAKE SPOKANE FIRE, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
PUT IN TAFS OR HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCALIZED MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN KGEG/KSFF SEEING
SMOKE HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS. /AS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 57 78 56 87 60 90 / 40 50 20 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 56 77 54 86 59 89 / 50 60 30 0 0 0
PULLMAN 49 77 50 83 53 87 / 30 30 10 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 87 62 93 65 97 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 47 74 45 84 48 88 / 70 70 30 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 52 70 49 81 54 85 / 70 80 50 0 0 0
KELLOGG 56 70 56 81 61 86 / 60 70 40 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 57 85 59 92 60 94 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 62 85 64 92 66 93 / 50 40 20 0 0 0
OMAK 58 85 58 92 60 94 / 60 40 10 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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