988
FXUS66 KOTX 222045
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
145 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY. HIGHEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO.
- WARMER WITH BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THIS TIME IN
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO, CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS FROM RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TODAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA MOVES EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL
LIFT PROVIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES AT THUNDERSTORMS THAN YESTERDAY, PARTICULARLY IN FAR
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. MAIN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THROUGH EVENING TODAY. THESE CHANCES ARE
BACKED BY SOME MODEST SURFACE-BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
LIGHTNING, OUTFLOW WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME HAIL. SOME
AREAS THAT COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN SPOKANE AND COEUR D'ALENE, MUCH OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, AND
STEVENS, PEND ORIELLE, AND FERRY COUNTIES. WENATCHEE AND MOSES LAKE
HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY BURN SCARS THAT COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THESE SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: A RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING
TOMORROW WITH FLATTENING HEIGHTS ON THURSDAY, AND WILL BRING A
RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. AS THESE HEIGHTS
FLATTEN, GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WENATCHEE AND WATERVILLE
PLATEAU AREAS. ACCOMPANYING THE DRIER WEATHER ARE LOWERED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, WITH VALUES IN THE TEENS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
INCREASE AND HEADLINES MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
THIS POTENTIAL. WHILE LOWERING HEIGHTS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL LOW APART FROM
SOME POTENTIAL SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLUSTERS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OF LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
RIDGE, FAVORING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO CROP UP NEAR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE,
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ANTICIPATED IN KEAT. TODAY, MODELS AGREE
MORE ON INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR NE WA
AND N ID PANHANDLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
LOOK TO END NEAR 00Z. KLWS HAS A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS LATER
IN THE TAF PERIOD, AROUND 21Z THROUGH 00Z. TIMING FOR KEAT
INDICATES SHOWERS ENDING AROUND 00Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP BUT STAY
AT VFR WHILE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH. CHANCE
FOR SOME LOCALIZED MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THIS IN THE TAFS. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SMOKE IN THE
KGEG/KSFF AREA DUE TO THE LAKE SPOKANE FIRE, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
PUT IN TAFS OR HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCALIZED MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN KGEG/KSFF SEEING
SMOKE HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS. /AS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 54 87 59 90 59 87 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 54 86 59 90 59 87 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 49 84 53 87 54 84 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 93 65 97 65 94 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 46 85 49 88 49 86 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 49 81 53 87 54 83 / 60 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 55 81 61 86 61 83 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 58 92 60 95 58 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 64 91 67 93 65 89 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 59 92 61 94 59 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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