604
FXUS66 KOTX 231152
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
452 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH IDAHO
TODAY
- WARMER WITH BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SYNOPSIS
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH A SMALL
THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WARM AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HEAT RISK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: THE UPPER-LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LAST 48 HOURS WILL TRACK EAST INTO MONTANA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CENTRAL WA WILL BE DRY TODAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE SOME PASSING FAIR AFTERNOON
CUMULUS. IN EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO, THE MORNING WILL START
OFF WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WITHIN THE VALLEYS OF NE WA AND N
ID WHERE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN FELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOG
WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS OVER NE WA AND N
ID WITH THE NBM LIKELY UNDER DOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS REFLECTED BETTER IN THE
HREF WHICH SUPPORTS 10-30% CHANCE FOR 0.01" OVER THESE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM AND THE DEPTH OF THE CAPE WILL
SHRINK AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES SO DO ANTICIPATE EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO WANE BACK INTO MAINLY MODERATE CUMULUS
BUILDUPS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. HREF ALSO INDICATING A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORTING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH THESE CELLS BEFORE
WANING, SO NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT WITH A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE
TODAY WHICH IS LIKELY MISSING THE 0.50-1.50" AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THAT FELL ON MONDAY AND FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (FOR FAR NE WA AND N ID)
WHERE SREF HAS 5-10% CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM
THE GULF OF AK FLATTENING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE AIR WILL BE DRIER
WITH PWATS DECREASING NEAR 0.50" LOWERING HUMIDITY VALUES WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM TOPPING OUT IN THE 90S THURSDAY THEN
80S TO 90S FRIDAY. THE INCOMING TROF WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE
FALLS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW OVER W WA. THIS WILL CREATE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS
OVER THE INLAND NW RESULTING IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS EACH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GEFS MEMBERS DRIVING THE
HOT, DRY, WINDY INDEX HAS PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN
REACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE EACH DAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE
WINDS OF 10-17 MPH COUPLED WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WHICH INCREASE IN THE CASCADE GAPS IN THE EVENING
HOURS CLOSER TO 15-20 MPH. WINDS ON FRIDAY PICK UP A FEW MORE
NOTCHES CLOSER TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WINDS ALOFT AND COOL AIR ADVECTION. BOTH DAYS WILL
DELIVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR FIRE
ZONES WHICH MISSED OUT ON THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS.
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL NEED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
BUT SOMETHING THAT IS BEING CONSIDERED WITH HREF JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF 50-70% FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY, ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ON TO THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU. WENATCHEE,
MOSES LAKE, EPHRATA, AND WATERVILLE PLATEAU DID NOT RECEIVE A
WETTING RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE MUCH MORE
VARIABLE INTO THE EASTERN BASIN AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS VARYING FROM A TRACE TO 0.50" MAKING THE DECISION A
BIT MORE CHALLENGING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 100
MEMBER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FOR THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN US COASTLINE ON
SATURDAY THEN BEGIN TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH RISING HEIGHTS SLOWLY WORKING BACK INTO THE INLAND NW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE
EXCEPT 25% OF THE MEMBERS DO INDICATE AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
FROM OREGON TO CENTRAL IDAHO BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER 10% OF THE MEMBERS SHOW A SMALL THREAT
FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER ON OR
AROUND MONDAY. NEITHER COME WITH A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AND MAIN
MESSAGE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK INTO THE 90S
WITH INCREASING HEAT RISK AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM HOT,
DRY, AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND
EVENTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME OUTSIDE THE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZES AND EVENING GAP WINDS. FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY OUT AND FIRE DANGER INDICES WILL RISE AGAIN. /SB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. FAIR TO MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY 17-21Z THOUGH CLOUDS DEPTHS SHOULD SHRINK WITH TIME AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. N IDAHO WILL CARRY THE BEST CHANCES
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 86 59 90 60 87 57 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 85 58 89 59 87 57 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 84 53 87 55 84 52 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 92 65 97 65 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 84 49 89 49 86 47 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 81 53 86 55 83 52 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 81 61 86 60 83 58 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 91 60 95 58 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 91 66 94 65 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 91 61 95 60 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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