672
FXUS66 KOTX 241122
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
422 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WITH BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S TO 100S NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEATRISK.
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND,
THEN REBOUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BACK INTO THE 90S TO 100S.
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES,
LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
TODAY AND BECOME SUPPRESSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON FRIDAY, WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WITH A VENGEANCE
BUT MORE OF A COMBINATION OF INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS DRAWN
TOWARD PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND COOL ADVECTION
FROM COOLER MARITIME AIR STACKING UP WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST
AND SQUEEZING THROUGH THE GORGE AND HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL DELIVER BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FLIRTING WITH LOW-END
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FIRE WEATHER. FOR TODAY, WINDS WILL
PEAK UP IN THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS
DEEPEN. WINDS IN CENTRAL AND WA WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
WENATCHEE, WATERVILLE, AND SOUTHERN OKANOGAN VALLEY AROUND
5-8PM. WINDS REGION-WIDE WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TECHNICALLY, THERE IS A MIDLEVEL COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT
AS NOTED, IT DOES NOT COME SWEEPING THROUGH YET 850-700MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE ANOTHER 5-10KTS. AS SUCH, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A
BIT STRONGER PUSH OF WINDS THROUGH THE REGION, ESPECIALLY WITH
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THESE WINDS MIX DOWN
RH WILL COME UP A FEW PERCENTAGES FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES COOL
SOME BUT STILL REMAINING NEAR THRESHOLDS OF CONCERN. WILL BE
LOOKING CLOSELY AT FRIDAY TO DETERMINE IF FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NECESSARY. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, ANY NEW FIRE
IGNITIONS IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAINS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC FOR A FEW HOURS EACH DAY.
THE RAINFALL WAS SPOTTY AND THERE ARE MANY DRY AREAS LEFT ACROSS
THE INLAND NW.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WE CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE 100 MEMBER ENSEMBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT. A TROUGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE PAC NW SATURDAY
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR AROUND A DAY THEN START TO
RETROGRADE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO SETUP ACROSS OREGON AND
INTO NC IDAHO. THERE IS A AN 80% CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF WA AND LEWIS COUNTY, IDAHO BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP
TABS ON FOR POTENTIAL LIGHTNING.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS A BIT
MORE CONCERNING WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. NOT ONLY WILL THE HEAT BE
INCREASING WITH MODERATE OR HIGHER HEATRISK BUT THIS FLOW
PATTERN HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND MOISTURE CAN BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE ENTER THE PEAK OF FIRE
SEASON WITH THE RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
HINTS IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY, INCHING NORTHWARD MONDAY, AND FURTHER INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THIS PATTERN PERSISTS WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THERE ARE 60% OF THE CLUSTERS INDICATING
THIS, WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN INCREASING PWATS BY LATE WEEK WHICH
WOULD INDICATE A SLOW TRANSITION TOWARD WETTER STORMS. THIS IS A
PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. NBM CURRENTLY
DOES NOT HAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THURSDAY SO
WE'LL SEE HOW THIS TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES OF 95F OR WARMER
ARE NEAR 70-90% FOR MANY LOWLANDS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME, THERE ARE NO SIGNALS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /SB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 16-19Z THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUSTS IMPACTING KEAT AND KLWS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 90 60 88 56 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 89 59 87 56 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 87 54 84 52 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 97 64 94 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 89 49 86 47 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 86 54 85 52 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 86 60 84 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 94 58 90 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 93 65 88 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 94 61 90 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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