089
FXUS66 KOTX 242107
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
207 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WITH BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S TO 100S NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEATRISK.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND,
THEN REBOUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BACK INTO THE 90S TO 100S.
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A GROWING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW: DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, WENATCHEE, MOSES LAKE, AND UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN
AREAS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY DROP INTO THE TEENS,
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS DUE
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF US IN CANADA DROPPING DOWN
AND TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EACH EVENING. TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST, WITH
SOME AREAS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO HIT 30 MPH. THESE ARE RIGHT
AROUND BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES, SO WE WILL BE KEEPING
A CLOSE EYE ON CONDITIONS TODAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: BY SATURDAY, THE HIGHEST OF THE WINDS WILL
HAVE MOVED THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DROPPING DUE TO HEIGHT
FALLS, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S THIS
WEEKEND. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: BEGINNING MONDAY, A RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING, RAISING HEIGHTS AND INTRODUCING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT THAT COME WITH SUCH FLOW. WHILE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING, MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RISE, INCREASING PWATS
TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
MOISTURE AND LIFT BRING A CHANCE OF MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY IN PARTICULAR. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW MODEST SURFACE BASED
CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG, AND CURRENT NBM CHANCES OF THUNDER SHOW
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A ~10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, BEGINNING MONDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL
START, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE HIGH 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
DUE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTNING RISK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE ELEVATED, WITH MANY AREAS STRUGGLING TO GET BELOW 60 DEGREES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEGRADED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK VALUES FOR THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CLUSTER
AGREEMENT ON THE WARMUP AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS DECENT THIS FAR
OUT, WITH ALL OF THE CLUSTERS SHOWING RAISING HEIGHTS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN FOR THE AREA MIDWEEK.
/AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 18-19Z THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP A BIT LATER FOR
EAT, AROUND 00Z. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE WIND GUSTS 20-25KTS,
WITH COE AND MWH SEEING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 60 87 56 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 59 87 57 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 54 84 52 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 64 94 63 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 49 86 47 82 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 54 83 53 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 61 83 59 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 59 90 55 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 66 87 61 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 61 90 57 86 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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