587
FXUS66 KOTX 152151
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
251 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH WEEKEND.
- RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CASCADES FRIDAY, SPREADING EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES,
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITH
A DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY, A BROAD RIDGE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: A LOW WILL BE POSITIONING ITSELF IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL PULL A DECENT PUSH
OF MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH AT LEAST ONE INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER (200% OF NORMAL). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN WA. IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND MOISTURE AMOUNTS. THE INLAND NORTHWEST HAS AT LEAST
45% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A
RANGE OF A 0.1-0.25". AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.5-0.75" ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADE CREST, NORTHEAST WA, AND NORTH ID.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITHIN
THESE SHOWERS. THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AS RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF WITH DRY, WARM AIR PRESSING INTO
THE REGION. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN IN PLACE
WARMING, DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S AND LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. /JDC
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH KEAT NEAR 06Z SAT, KMWH
NEAR 10Z SAT, AND AFTER 12Z FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS. CIGS
WILL LOWER AS STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS. TAKING A PEAK AFTER THAT THE
HREF HAS A 80% CHANCE KGEG WILL DROP TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
15Z-18Z SAT AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES.
JDC
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
18Z SAT. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR AT
KEAT/KMWH 9-12Z SAT FROM REDUCED VISIBILITY IN RAIN.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 81 61 76 56 81 54 / 20 30 70 10 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 81 62 76 57 81 55 / 20 20 80 10 0 10
PULLMAN 80 56 73 52 78 52 / 0 10 60 20 0 20
LEWISTON 90 67 82 64 86 63 / 0 10 50 20 10 20
COLVILLE 77 50 77 46 81 45 / 30 70 90 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 77 56 72 52 81 50 / 20 30 90 10 0 10
KELLOGG 80 60 72 59 78 58 / 10 10 70 10 10 10
MOSES LAKE 84 62 83 54 83 54 / 30 60 70 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 81 65 83 59 82 62 / 40 80 40 0 0 0
OMAK 80 62 85 55 83 55 / 30 90 40 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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