982
FXUS66 KOTX 161216
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
516 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- REGIONWIDE RAINFALL EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
-COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AND DRY
FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. A
COOLING TREND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE A RETURN
OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER ARRIVES WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK..
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A FEW OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN
WA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TIMING FOR THE RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL PROGRESSING EASTWARD WILL
IMPACT THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH 6 AM AND INTO EASTERN WA THROUGH 8
AM, MAKING IT TO THE WA AND ID PALOUSE AND ID PANHANDLE BY LATE
MORNING. BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTING OUR BURN SCARS IS
LOW AND CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN. THAT SAID, KEEPING AN EYE ON THE STRATIFORM RAINFALL FOR
OUR CASCADE BURN SCARS (PIONEER) SHOULD STILL BE MONITORED.
MORE DETAILS...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL PRESENT ITSELF FROM ABOUT MOUNT RAINIER
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE BETWEEN NOW (06Z) AND
22-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BE COINCIDENT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER CHANCES (10-20% CHANCE) ACROSS NORTHEAST WA AND NORTHERN
ID). THE SURFACE LOW ARRIVED INTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING AND
HELPED USHER THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION EASTWARD JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. PLACES ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SAW
HOURS OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. FOR EASTERN WA AND
NORTHERN ID, WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT AROUND 0.10 INCHES TO NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 1.00 INCHES, LOCATION DEPENDING. AS OF THIS EVENING, THE
COMPARISON FOR OBSERVATION TO MODEL PREDICTION HAS SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE EASTERN CASCADE VALLEYS TRACKING AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR 6
HOUR PRECIPITATION. EXTENDING THAT FOR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING GIVES AROUND 1.00" ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND NEAR 1.00" IN FAR NORTHEAST WA AND IN BOUNDARY COUNTY, IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE COOLER FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO THE
MOISTURE AND RAINFALL; VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR
MID AUGUST. A WELCOME TREAT FOR MANY! SUNDAY WILL BRING BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE CAMAS PRAIRIE OF THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES (10-
20%) AS WE SEE ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES NUDGING
BACK UP TO 120% OF NORMAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WEAK RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
RETURN OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER, AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. /DEWEY
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD FOR KPUW/KLWS/KMWH/KEAT. FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE,
CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME,
BETWEEN 16-20Z. THE RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. KEAT IS CURRENTLY
OBSERVING RAIN, AND THAT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH
15Z. KMWH WILL SEE RAIN FOR A LITTLE LONGER, BETWEEN 17-20Z.
KPUW WILL SEE RAIN START AROUND 15Z, AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z,
AND KLWS WILL SEE SHOWERS FROM AROUND 21-01Z. KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
WILL SEE RAIN BEGIN AROUND 15Z AND LAST THROUGH 01Z, WITH
HEAVIER RAIN ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 16-20Z. BY 21Z, ALL TAF SITES
WILL BE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A 5-15 PERCENT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS
FROM 21-03Z, AND THIS AREA INCLUDES FAR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ALL SITES
BUT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS DROPPING TO
MVFR FOR GEG/SFF/COE FROM 16-20Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND KMWH/KPUW, SO NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN TAFS. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 78 56 81 55 84 57 / 80 0 0 10 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 76 56 82 56 85 58 / 80 0 0 10 10 0
PULLMAN 74 51 79 52 83 53 / 70 10 0 20 20 0
LEWISTON 82 64 87 63 91 64 / 50 10 10 20 20 0
COLVILLE 79 45 81 45 82 47 / 80 10 0 0 10 0
SANDPOINT 73 51 80 49 82 52 / 90 10 0 0 20 0
KELLOGG 72 57 78 58 83 61 / 70 10 0 10 20 0
MOSES LAKE 83 53 83 56 86 54 / 70 0 0 0 10 0
WENATCHEE 82 59 82 63 85 62 / 50 0 0 0 10 0
OMAK 84 54 84 56 85 57 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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