058
FXUS66 KOTX 081901
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1201 PM PDT MON SEP 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK
WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
- IMPROVING AIR QUALITY EXPECTED WITH PATTERN CHANGE.
SYNOPSIS
SMOKE AND HAZE IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WE HAVE
SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING
INTO THE 70S BY NEXT WEEK. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE ARE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
MORNING UPDATE: PER COORDINATION WITH AIR QUALITY AGENCIES
ACROSS THE REGION, THE AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN LIFTED FOR
OKANOGAN, ADAMS, LINCOLN, SPOKANE, WHITMAN, GARFIELD, ASOTIN,
LEWIS, NEZ PERCE, BENEWAH, LATAH, SHOSHONE, KOOTENAI, AND BONNER
COUNTIES. JW
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
TODAY: LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING EXISTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
INTO CENTRAL IDAHO, WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY START A COOLDOWN INTO TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. TODAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S, ONLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OFF THE PNW COAST WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS
EVENING, A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE,
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, OKANOGAN VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS, CASCADES, AND THE
BLUES.
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: AS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER
INLAND, THE TREND OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYS THAT LOOK TO BE WETTEST INCLUDE TOMORROW, WHERE
THE CASCADES HAVE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE AND HIGHER OF SEEING A
WETTING RAIN (0.10 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE), AND WEDNESDAY,
WHERE CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, CENTRAL IDAHO, AND THE CAMAS PRAIRIE.
WHILE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AT 10-20 PERCENT, PLACES THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST
PERCENTAGES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (25 PERCENT CHANCE AND ABOVE) WILL
BE THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THAT COULD SEE WETTING RAINS. WITH
THIS VERY WELCOME COOLER AND WETTER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH,
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL STEADILY BEGIN IMPROVING BEGINNING
TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, IN THE MID 70S, AND LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID 50S, SO A HINT OF FALL SEEMS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS WEEK.
NEXT WEEKEND: WETTING RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AS WE GET INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-70S.
CURRENT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT OF LOWER
HEIGHTS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS FURTHER LOWERING HEIGHTS MOVING IN SUNDAY, THERE IS LESS
AGREEMENT ON IF WE SEE SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A SLIGHT WARM UP
FIRST, BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
ALL IN ALL, AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE CONTINUED LOWER HEIGHTS,
LOWER TEMPERATURES, AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAYBE EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF
THE CLUSTERS AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CURRENT TRENDS.
ENJOY OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL! /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEGRADED VIS
BUT LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. INCREASED INSTABILITY
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE COMING
UP FROM OREGON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND NW OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR A BROADER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A 10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE REGION (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF
THE TAF SITES).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODELS SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
OREGON POTENTIALLY PROPATING NORTH AND EAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 20-30 KT GUSTS FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN UP TOWARDS THE SPOKANE
AREA BETWEEN 05Z-10Z THIS EVENING. THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN 18Z
TAF'S BUT WILL BE EXAMINED CLOSER FOR 00Z TAF'S. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 82 57 83 57 82 57 / 10 10 20 20 20 50
COEUR D'ALENE 82 57 85 57 83 58 / 10 0 20 30 30 50
PULLMAN 81 51 78 52 76 52 / 10 20 30 40 40 70
LEWISTON 86 61 84 62 82 61 / 10 20 30 40 50 70
COLVILLE 82 47 84 47 83 47 / 30 10 40 20 30 40
SANDPOINT 80 52 83 52 81 53 / 20 10 30 30 40 60
KELLOGG 80 58 83 58 80 58 / 10 10 40 40 40 70
MOSES LAKE 82 57 80 56 82 57 / 10 20 50 20 40 30
WENATCHEE 82 62 79 61 82 62 / 10 20 60 30 40 30
OMAK 85 60 85 58 86 60 / 20 20 50 20 20 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY- MOSES LAKE AREA-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-
OKANOGAN VALLEY- UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
WENATCHEE AREA- WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...AIR QUALITY ALERT BOUNDARY COUNTY.
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