396
FXUS66 KOTX 092306
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
406 PM PDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY NEAR
WILDFIRES.
SYNOPSIS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN AN
IMPROVEMENT IN AIR QUALITY, AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY NEAR WILDFIRES.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SW OREGON
WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY, THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO SE OREGON THURSDAY, AND THEN NW MONTANA ON FRIDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
UP INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY IS FOUND IN THE CASCADES, AND DOWN AROUND THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. ANOTHER
IMPULSE MOVING UP OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH 700-500MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 300-800 J/KG WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
GREATEST FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL AND SE WASHINGTON
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STORMS MAY BEGIN TO PUT DOWN HEAVIER
RAINFALL OVER SE WASHINGTON INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 150-200% OF NORMAL. ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, PLENTY OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: AS THE LOW EXITS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
WEAK BEFORE POTENTIALLY ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES. WITH NO STRONG
FRONT TO SCRUB OUT THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE, PRECIPITABLE WATER
REMAINS HIGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE SOME
VALLEY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF ANY MID LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH, BUT THIS
DETAIL CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
SMOKE AND HAZE: SEVERAL ACTIVE WILDFIRES REMAIN DUE TO LACK OF
WETTING RAINS FOR THE AREA. THIS FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO ACTIVELY
PRODUCE SMOKE UNTIL SIGNIFICANT RAINS OCCUR. TODAY AIR QUALITY
AGENCIES ENDED THE AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR GRANT AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES. THE AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR CHELAN,
FERRY, STEVENS, AND PEND OREILLE COUNTIES. JW
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF
CONCERN FOR MOST TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EMBEDDED
WAVES ROTATE INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD
TIME PINPOINT THE TIMING AND AREAS OF CONVECTION LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF CONVECTION. THIS EVENING
MONITORING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES, NE OREGON, AND NEAR
THE IT/MT BORDER. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS
TO EXPAND INTO MORE OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN, SE WASHINGTON, AND
THE SOUTHERN ID PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING
UP INTO THE SPOKANE AREA OVERNIGHT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR COULD RESULT IF A HEAVIER SHOWER MOVES OVER A TAF SITE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL EXPAND OVER
MORE OF THE REGION. PROB30 GROUPS UTILIZED FOR SEVERAL TAF
SITES FOR -SHRA AND -TSRA. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 57 85 57 80 56 79 / 20 30 40 30 40 30
COEUR D'ALENE 58 85 59 80 57 78 / 20 30 50 40 50 40
PULLMAN 52 80 53 74 52 74 / 30 30 60 50 60 50
LEWISTON 62 85 63 80 62 80 / 30 30 70 60 60 50
COLVILLE 46 86 47 82 46 81 / 10 10 30 30 40 40
SANDPOINT 52 84 53 79 51 76 / 20 20 50 50 60 50
KELLOGG 59 83 59 77 58 73 / 20 20 50 60 70 60
MOSES LAKE 57 85 57 82 56 82 / 20 30 30 30 20 20
WENATCHEE 62 85 64 85 62 84 / 20 20 20 20 20 20
OMAK 58 89 60 87 59 86 / 10 10 20 10 20 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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