244
FXUS66 KOTX 101227
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
527 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY NEAR
WILDFIRES.
SYNOPSIS
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK. AREAS OF
SMOKE AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY NEAR WILDFIRES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER INLAND AND
PUSHES A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA, THE CHANCE FOR
DAILY AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL OVERALL BE VERY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, BUT ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES MAY OCCUR WITHIN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS
FROM NOW THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW ARE AT 100-150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL, BUT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RISE TO 150-200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE CHANCES (40-60
PERCENT) ARE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE OUTSIDE OF THE AREA AND
ACROSS EASTERN OREGON. WITH THIS INCREASED SURGE OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE LIFT FROM SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALSO COMES THE CHANCE FOR WETTER THUNDERSTORMS, AND THEREFORE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER
SENSITIVE BURN SCARS, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME FLASH FLOODING.
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY ARE 10-20 PERCENT, WITH
LOCALIZED CHANCES OF 30 PERCENT NEAR THE AREAS RECEIVING THE
MOST RAINFALL. THOUGH THE OVERALL AREA IS FOCUSED ON EASTERN
OREGON, HIGHER PWATS AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
HAS LED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO INCLUDE FAR SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND CENTRAL IDAHO IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR BURN SCARS. BY SATURDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOWER TO AROUND 10-20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RIGHT NOW, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT AS
THIS LOW FILLS AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN RIGHT BEHIND IT, BRINGING FURTHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING AS MANY SMALL WAVES OF
ENERGY INTO THE AREA, SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOWER TO
1-5%. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT OVERALL
IS INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS, HOWEVER, REMAIN LOW. BY TUESDAY, CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS
LESS CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS, AND SHOWS HIGH
HEIGHTS MOVING OVER THE AREA, INDICATING A POSSIBLE RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THE LOCATION, SO SIGNALS
RIGHT NOW ARE LOW.
SMOKE AND HAZE: SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT THROUGH THE
AREA, WITH AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE BEING HEAVIEST NEAR ONGOING
WILDFIRES. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS IN
WASHINGTON THROUGH 11AM TOMORROW. /AS
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/CONVECTION STOPPED AT THE WA/OR
DOORSTEP AND BROUGHT ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN
WA. SOME AREAS SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITY (BUT GREATER THAN 6SM)
DUE TO HAZE/SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES. EXPECT HAZE/SMOKE TO PERSIST
AND BECOME MORE PROMINENT FROM CQV/OMK/MWH AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT DEW/GEG AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY 18Z. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 23Z TODAY NEAR
LEWISTON AND PULLMAN, AFTER 05Z NEAR COEUR D'ALENE AND SPOKANE
AND DRIFTING NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT AT AN
AIR FIELD NEAR LWS/PUW/COE/SFF/GEG, WITH THE BEST TIME PERIOD
03Z THROUGH 10Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE
TS IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY SMOKE/HAZE AND WILL
MAINTAIN VISIBILITIES ABOVE 6SM WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS AND
SHOWERS. /DEWEY
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 86 58 81 57 81 56 / 10 20 20 30 20 20
COEUR D'ALENE 86 59 81 57 79 57 / 10 20 30 40 30 20
PULLMAN 81 53 76 52 75 52 / 10 50 50 50 40 20
LEWISTON 86 63 81 62 81 61 / 10 60 60 60 50 20
COLVILLE 86 46 84 47 83 47 / 0 10 20 20 20 20
SANDPOINT 84 54 81 52 78 52 / 10 20 40 40 40 40
KELLOGG 84 58 79 57 74 58 / 10 40 60 70 60 40
MOSES LAKE 86 58 83 56 83 54 / 10 10 20 10 10 0
WENATCHEE 86 63 86 62 85 61 / 20 10 20 10 0 0
OMAK 89 60 89 59 86 58 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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