763
FXUS66 KOTX 110807
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
107 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR
WILDFIRES.
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK. AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY NEAR WILDFIRES.
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, NORTHWEST NEVADA, AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. FOR THURSDAY, THE
POSITION OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE INLAND NORTHWEST IN A MOIST, SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. WEATHER ON THURSDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY'S WEATHER AS VORTICITY MAXES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL LOW. FOR THURSDAY, THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE, BUT ISOLATED POP-UP
CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 150-200% OF NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 500-1000 J/KG
OF UNCAPPED SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL FAVOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LITTLE
TO NO SHEAR, THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. PROBABILITIES FOR 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR HAS
INCREASED TO 50% ACROSS THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND SOUTHERN SHOSHONE
COUNTY. THERE ARE NO HIGH-RISK BURN SCARS IN THESE AREAS AND WITH
THE ONGOING DROUGHT, CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. THAT SAID,
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER STEEP TERRAIN MAY LOCALIZED
IMPACTS SUCH AS ROCKS OR MUD IN ROADS. ADDITIONALLY, ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL ALSO BRING A A RISK OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 25-45 MPH.
FOR FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MONTANA
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTH
IDAHO AND FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SATURDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY A WEEK
WHERE THERE IS NOT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE PNW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. A SCENARIO WHERE THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH
OF WASHINGTON WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. WHEREAS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS WASHINGTON
AND NORTH IDAHO WOULD BE A WETTER AND COOLER SCENARIO FOR THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW, 63% OF ENSEMBLES RESEMBLE THE WETTER/COOLER
SCENARIO, BUT THE OTHER 37% SHOULD BE COMPLETELY FORGOTTEN ABOUT.
THE NBM IS FAVORING THE WETTER/COOLER SCENARIO THOUGH WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING TO 30-60% ACROSS THE ENTIRE INLAND
NORTHWEST.
MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
AGAIN. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS HOWEVER, WITH 30%
OF MEMBERS WANTING TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE PNW MID-WEEK.
/VMT
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: AS OF 06Z, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING OFF AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO PANHANDLE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS WHITMAN COUNTY
AND SOUTHEAST SPOKANE COUNTY. NEW SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR GEG/SFF FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO BRING AN BRIEF
INCREASE IN THE WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-27 KNOTS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LEWISTON AREA AND EAST OF COEUR D'ALENE.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TAF SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IS 30% KLWS/PUW, AND 20% KGEG/KSFF/KCOE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 84 56 82 56 83 56 / 10 20 10 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 83 57 81 56 83 56 / 30 20 10 20 0 0
PULLMAN 77 52 77 51 80 53 / 40 50 20 20 0 0
LEWISTON 83 61 83 60 86 61 / 50 50 30 20 0 10
COLVILLE 87 45 83 46 83 45 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 82 50 80 51 80 51 / 30 20 20 30 10 10
KELLOGG 81 56 76 57 79 57 / 50 50 40 40 20 10
MOSES LAKE 85 55 84 53 84 54 / 10 10 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 88 61 86 60 84 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 90 59 88 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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