216
FXUS66 KOTX 120506
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1006 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR
WILDFIRES.
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK. AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY NEAR WILDFIRES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TOMORROW: THE INLAND NORTHWEST REMAINS IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST OREGON. CURRENTLY THE BEST OVERLAP OF THERMODYNAMICS AND
KINEMATICS EXISTS IN SE WA AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. I AM
EXPECTING A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN CENTRAL IDAHO AND MOVE
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION IN THE EVENING. WE ARE ALSO SEEING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH IDAHO AS WELL WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. WITH PWAT ANOMALIES IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ID PANHANDLE AROUND 160-180% OF NORMAL AND
SLOWER STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 20 MPH, STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF RAIN RATES UP TO 1"/HR WHICH COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS IN
RECENT BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. TOMORROW, THE LOW SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATEST
IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE (15-30% CHANCE).
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
CENTRAL WASHINGTON WILL HAMPER TERRAIN DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY. QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS SMALL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH MORE
STABLE BRINGING CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL WETTING RAINS. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON HAS A 25-50% CHANCE AND NORTH IDAHO HAS A 50%
CHANCE OF SEEING 0.10"+ FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. AFTER THAT, MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FORMING IN THE MID WEEK WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AGAIN.
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND NOT IMPACT TAF SITES. PUW-LWS HAVE A
CHANCE FOR MORNING SHOWERS THAT WILL DIMINISH BY NOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS
HITTING TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 56 82 56 84 57 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 40
COEUR D'ALENE 56 82 56 84 57 77 / 20 10 10 10 0 40
PULLMAN 52 78 52 80 53 68 / 40 20 10 0 0 50
LEWISTON 61 82 59 86 61 77 / 50 30 10 0 0 50
COLVILLE 45 83 47 84 46 75 / 20 10 0 0 0 40
SANDPOINT 51 80 51 81 51 75 / 20 20 20 10 10 40
KELLOGG 56 78 57 80 58 71 / 50 40 30 20 10 40
MOSES LAKE 54 85 54 85 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
WENATCHEE 61 86 61 85 62 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 40
OMAK 59 89 58 88 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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