011
FXUS66 KOTX 131804
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1104 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM SATURDAY, THEN COOL AND SHOWERY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY NEAR WILDFIRES.
SYNOPSIS
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITAITON. AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR WILDFIRES. WARM
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
SATURDAY: DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE INLAND NORTHWEST
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT DAILY SHOWERS EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH. ASIDE FROM A 15-25%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SHOSHONE COUNTY,
ID/MONTANA BORDER, SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 80S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ELONGATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS WASHINGTON. THIS PUTS EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTH IDAHO IN THE NORTHERN, WEAKER PORTION WHILE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS OREGON. DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE (PWATS >0.80 INCHES) WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR RAIN, BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
INTRODUCES A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
FOR THE INLAND NORTHWEST.
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK INTO OREGON WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED
TO OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE CASCADES, WITH LITTLE TO
NO RAIN FARTHER INLAND. A FARTHER NORTH TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST
OREGON WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY, WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER NORTH IDAHO MONDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY
FAVORS THE WETTER SCENARIO WITH A 40-60% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION (0.01 INCHES) ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST. FAR
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE/CAMAS PRAIRIE
ARE FAVORED A BIT MORE WITH A 60-75% CHANCE.
FOR RAINFALL >0.25 INCHES BETWEEN 5 AM SUNDAY AND 5 AM MONDAY, THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWS:
* CASCADES, CAMAS PRAIRIE, AND CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE MTNS: 60% CHANCE
* NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, SPOKANE AREA, AND WA/ID PALOUSE: 25-40% CHANCE
* LEE OF THE CASCADES AND COLUMBIA BASIN: 15% CHANCE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
RETURN OF RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, LEADING TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WHILE ENSEMBLES AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
INFLUENCING THE REGION, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ITS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD TO MONITOR, THOUGH
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS NEAR THE ID/MT BORDER AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
LAST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
EVENING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. MWH/EAT BOTH HAVE CHANCES OF
SEEING RAIN AROUND 15Z, WITH MWH HAVING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING RAIN FROM 12-15Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN UPTICK IN WIND
GUSTS STARTING AROUND 15Z FOR ALL TAF SITES BUT EAT, WITH WIND
GUSTS 15-20KTS POSSIBLE. EAT'S WIND GUSTS WILL KICK IN JUST
AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WIND GUSTS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES
WILL LAST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
AT MWH/EAT BEGINNING AT 15Z, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES OF
RAIN BEGINNING AT 12Z FOR MWH. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AN
INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS TO 15-20KTS FOR ALL TAF SITES BUT EAT
BEGINNING AT 15Z. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 84 58 72 53 73 50 / 0 0 40 40 20 0
COEUR D'ALENE 84 58 74 53 72 51 / 0 0 40 50 30 0
PULLMAN 81 53 66 47 68 44 / 0 0 50 60 20 0
LEWISTON 87 62 74 57 75 54 / 0 0 60 60 20 0
COLVILLE 84 48 76 45 76 41 / 0 0 40 50 30 0
SANDPOINT 81 51 74 50 69 47 / 10 0 40 60 50 10
KELLOGG 79 58 72 54 67 51 / 10 0 40 70 50 10
MOSES LAKE 85 56 72 49 75 48 / 0 0 60 20 0 0
WENATCHEE 85 61 73 55 77 56 / 0 10 60 20 0 0
OMAK 87 59 77 55 80 53 / 0 0 40 30 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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