595
FXUS66 KOTX 132219
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
319 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM SATURDAY, THEN COOL AND SHOWERY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY NEAR WILDFIRES.
SYNOPSIS
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITAITON. AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR WILDFIRES. WARM
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-80S,
WITH LOWS IN THE HIGH 50S. LIGHT SHOWERS AND A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING IN CENTRAL
IDAHO, FOCUSED ON SHOSHONE COUNTY, WITH A COUPLE CONVECTIVE CELLS
ALREADY POPPING UP. TOMORROW, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OFF THE
PNW COAST WILL MOVE IN, BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS WILL
YIELD RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NEARLY 20
DEGREES BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, MOSES LAKE AND
WENATCHEE WILL BE FIRST TO SEE THE RAIN, AND THEN IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. CURRENT 24-HOUR NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 35 PERCENT
CHANCE OR HIGHER OF A WETTING RAIN (0.10 INCHES OR MORE)
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. IN FACT, APART FROM THE WENATCHEE, WATERVILLE PLATEAU,
MOSES LAKE, AND UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN AREAS, THERE IS A 15-25
PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. UNSURPRISINGLY, PWATS SURGE TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW AND
MONDAY ARE LOW, WITH ONLY MOUNTAIN AREAS SEEING A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OR HIGHER. WITH THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN
WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
OVERALL, THIS WILL BE A MUCH NEEDED WET SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING SOME AREAS ARE STILL UNDER AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR
WILDFIRE SMOKE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FILL AND A RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE
AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED DIP DOWN INTO TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL
BE VERY SHORT LIVED, AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S BY
MONDAY, WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. DESPITE PWATS STILL BEING 100-150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS,
AND EVEN THOSE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BEGIN DECLINING THROUGH THE WEEK. CLUSTERS
SHOW CONTINUED HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH SIGNALS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PNW COAST ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, AFTER DAY FOUR, CLUSTER AGREEMENT IS VERY POOR ON
HOW THE LOW WILL EVOLVE, WITH HALF THE CLUSTERS SHOWING THE LOW
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH
HIGHER HEIGHTS, AND THE OTHER HALF SHOWING A CHANCE FOR COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER. CLUSTER CONSENSUS VARIES EVEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE
INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SO WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS NEAR THE ID/MT BORDER AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
LAST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
EVENING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. MWH/EAT BOTH HAVE CHANCES OF
SEEING RAIN AROUND 15Z, WITH MWH HAVING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING RAIN FROM 12-15Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN UPTICK IN WIND
GUSTS STARTING AROUND 15Z FOR ALL TAF SITES BUT EAT, WITH WIND
GUSTS 15-20KTS POSSIBLE. EAT'S WIND GUSTS WILL KICK IN JUST
AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WIND GUSTS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES
WILL LAST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
AT MWH/EAT BEGINNING AT 15Z, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES OF
RAIN BEGINNING AT 12Z FOR MWH. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AN
INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS TO 15-20KTS FOR ALL TAF SITES BUT EAT
BEGINNING AT 15Z. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 57 68 51 73 49 81 / 0 70 50 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 58 68 52 71 50 81 / 0 60 60 20 0 0
PULLMAN 53 64 45 68 44 77 / 0 80 60 10 0 0
LEWISTON 63 71 55 73 53 83 / 0 80 60 10 0 0
COLVILLE 47 71 42 74 40 80 / 0 70 60 30 0 0
SANDPOINT 51 70 48 68 46 79 / 0 60 70 50 10 0
KELLOGG 58 68 52 65 50 78 / 0 60 80 40 10 0
MOSES LAKE 56 74 48 75 48 81 / 10 60 20 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 61 73 53 76 55 79 / 10 60 20 0 0 0
OMAK 58 75 52 80 52 83 / 0 60 30 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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