629
FXUS66 KOTX 140610
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1110 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND SHOWERY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY NEAR WILDFIRES.
SYNOPSIS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITAITON. AREAS OF
SMOKE AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR WILDFIRES. WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID-80S, WITH LOWS IN THE HIGH 50S. LIGHT SHOWERS AND A 10-15
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EVENING IN CENTRAL IDAHO, FOCUSED ON SHOSHONE COUNTY, WITH A
COUPLE CONVECTIVE CELLS ALREADY POPPING UP. TOMORROW, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OFF THE PNW COAST WILL MOVE IN, BRINGING
A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS WILL YIELD RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND A
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NEARLY 20 DEGREES BETWEEN TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, MOSES LAKE AND WENATCHEE WILL BE FIRST
TO SEE THE RAIN, AND THEN IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. CURRENT
24-HOUR NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OR HIGHER OF
A WETTING RAIN (0.10 INCHES OR MORE) THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA
FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. IN FACT, APART FROM THE
WENATCHEE, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, MOSES LAKE, AND UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN AREAS, THERE IS A 15-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.25 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNSURPRISINGLY, PWATS SURGE TO
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AND MONDAY ARE LOW, WITH ONLY MOUNTAIN AREAS
SEEING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OR HIGHER. WITH THIS FRONT, THERE
WILL BE AN UPTICK IN WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. OVERALL, THIS WILL BE A MUCH NEEDED WET
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SOME AREAS ARE STILL UNDER AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FILL AND A RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER
THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED DIP DOWN INTO TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED, AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
70S BY MONDAY, WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. DESPITE PWATS STILL BEING
100-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND EVEN THOSE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BEGIN
DECLINING THROUGH THE WEEK. CLUSTERS SHOW CONTINUED HIGHER
HEIGHTS AND WARMING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SIGNALS OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PNW COAST ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
AFTER DAY FOUR, CLUSTER AGREEMENT IS VERY POOR ON HOW THE LOW
WILL EVOLVE, WITH HALF THE CLUSTERS SHOWING THE LOW RAPIDLY
WEAKENING AND WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH HIGHER
HEIGHTS, AND THE OTHER HALF SHOWING A CHANCE FOR COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER. CLUSTER CONSENSUS VARIES EVEN FURTHER AS WE
MOVE INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SO WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN AROUND 12Z AROUND MWH AND
SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS CURRENTLY
HAVE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AT KPUW/KLWS/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE BETWEEN
14Z-17Z. CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY BE VFR AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, THEN BEGIN TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE
IS A 40-50% CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KGEG/KSFF BETWEEN 18-22Z
AND AT KCOE BETWEEN 20-00Z WITH STEADIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH
GUSTS 15-25KTS. MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON THAT BRINGS A 10-20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE THAT INCLUDES KPUW/KLWS, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW AT THIS MOMENT TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE AND
LOW CONFIDENCE AT KPUW/KLWS WITH RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 84 57 68 51 73 49 / 0 0 70 50 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 83 58 68 52 71 50 / 0 0 60 60 20 0
PULLMAN 81 53 64 45 68 44 / 0 0 80 60 10 0
LEWISTON 85 63 71 55 73 53 / 0 0 80 60 10 0
COLVILLE 84 47 71 42 74 40 / 0 0 70 60 30 0
SANDPOINT 82 51 70 48 68 46 / 10 0 60 70 50 10
KELLOGG 80 58 68 52 65 50 / 10 0 60 80 40 10
MOSES LAKE 85 56 74 48 75 48 / 0 10 60 20 0 0
WENATCHEE 83 61 73 53 76 55 / 0 10 60 20 0 0
OMAK 86 58 75 52 80 52 / 0 0 60 30 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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