664
FXUS66 KOTX 142233
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
333 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY
- WARM AND DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS LINGER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY, WITH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
BRIEF RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PNW, WITH THE TRACK JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF US. THERE IS A RAIN BAND MOVING THROUGH NE WASHINGTON
AND THE N IDAHO PANHANDLE. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON, THERE IS
ROUGHLY 100-200 J/KG OF CAPE THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE RAIN
AND GIVE A ROUGHLY 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SINCE MUCH OF
THE ENERGY IS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF US, AREAS THAT HAVE A 15-25
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE FAR SE WASHINGTON AND THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. CURRENT 3-HOUR RAIN TOTALS
HAVE 0.10" FAR SE WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE,
DECREASING AS YOU GO FURTHER NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 0.02-0.05". RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
WITH RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN IN FAR NE WASHINGTON THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY. RIGHT NOW CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN ARE STILL HIGHEST
IN SE WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE, THOUGH THERE IS
STILL A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN IN THE
SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE, LEWISTON/PULLMAN, AND OMAK AREAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR, SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, AND SHOULD ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORM, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
NEARLY COMPLETELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL INCREASE BY A COUPLE DEGREES, INTO THE LOW 70S, AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THEN.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING
OVER THE AREA, RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES RISE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 80S. AS WARMER AIR IS
ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA, A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL ALLOW FOR A
20-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE THAT TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST, CHANCES FOR BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS DECREASE. THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST ON TUESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S, WHICH IS ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL, BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES AS
HIGHER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL DECREASE WITH THE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, FORECAST
CONSENSUS DECREASES. THERE IS INCREASING CLUSTER CONFIDENCE IN A
BROAD TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST, BUT THERE IS MUCH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE TROUGH. LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CHANCES OF RAIN WITH THE
TROUGH, BUT DETAILS AREN'T CLEAR AT THE MOMENT. CLUSTER
CONSENSUS DECREASES FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS THEY EVOLVE. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: RADAR SHOWS RAIN WITHIN THE HOUR TO GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS,
WITH GOOD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE THE RAIN BE IN PREVAILING
FOR ALL BUT LWS. FOR GEG/SFF/COE/PUW, THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR FROM
~19-24Z, WITH MVFR ENDING EARLIER FOR PUW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
PICKED UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10KTS OR
MORE AT GEG/SFF/COE, AND THE POTENTIAL TO GUST TO 20KTS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE THAT INCLUDES PUW/LWS, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE THEM IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BY 18Z TOMORROW, RAIN WILL
HAVE ENDED FOR THE TAF SITES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
AND LOW CONFIDENCE AT KPUW WITH RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS AT PUW/LWS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 70 49 82 53 86 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 52 68 50 83 55 87 / 60 30 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 47 66 44 78 50 83 / 70 10 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 57 71 52 83 57 88 / 80 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 44 72 41 82 43 86 / 60 30 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 48 65 46 80 49 84 / 60 50 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 51 63 51 79 56 84 / 80 50 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 52 75 50 83 51 85 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 55 77 56 81 59 85 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 54 80 53 85 55 87 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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