650
FXUS66 KOTX 022254
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
354 PM PDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER CHANCES OVER PARTS OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- DRY SUNDAY ONWARD WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AREAS OF FROST. BREEZY WEST
WINDS FRIDAY SHIFTING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY (THURSDAY) THROUGH SATURDAY: A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN WA AND ID PANHANDLE, THEN RECEDES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW THAT HAS BEEN DIRECTING
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS DIVES SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY DRY,
THEN A 30 TO 60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS TO THE CASCADE CREST,
SOUTHEASTERN WA, AND ID PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA
PUSHES A BAND OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE LOW DROPPING
INTO THE REGION WILL COME AN INCREASED WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN WESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH THE CASCADE
GAPS AND ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 13 TO 17
MPH AND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FUNNELING
DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND THE PURCELL TRENCH WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EACH
NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO THE SPOKANE AND RITZVILLE AREAS WITH PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT RAINS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A PATTERN SHIFT WILL COMMENCE AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST PLACING THE INLAND
NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES
AND DECREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL GET NOTICEABLY
COLDER WITHOUT A BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INSULATE THE SURFACE. LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOWS WILL MODERATE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
MODEL CONSENSUS IS POOR. THE ECMWF INDICATES A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTING UP OVER THE REGION DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO 4500 FEET
OVER THE CASCADES, WHILE THE GEFS SHOWS THE OPPOSITE - A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. IF THE ECMWF PANS
OUT, THE CASCADES COULD SEE THEIR FIRST SUBSTANTIAL SNOW OF THE
SEASON, BUT WE WILL SEE. /RF
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO IMPACT LWS FROM 01Z TO 04Z. SOME CLEARING OF CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT RAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE FOG FORECAST IS LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE TAFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT GEG, SFF, COE,
PUW, LWS OVERNIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW
MUCH CLEARING OF CLOUDS OCCURS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 43 68 43 66 41 64 / 10 0 0 10 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 45 68 44 64 40 62 / 20 0 0 20 20 0
PULLMAN 44 63 41 61 35 62 / 30 10 0 20 20 10
LEWISTON 54 69 48 66 45 65 / 40 20 0 20 20 10
COLVILLE 32 69 33 66 30 63 / 10 0 0 10 10 0
SANDPOINT 47 65 46 61 41 58 / 20 0 10 30 40 10
KELLOGG 47 65 45 59 42 58 / 40 10 10 50 50 20
MOSES LAKE 41 71 43 69 43 67 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 46 70 49 68 45 65 / 10 0 10 0 0 0
OMAK 44 70 45 67 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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