729
FXUS66 KOTX 032134
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
234 PM PDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN
CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
- DRY SUNDAY ONWARD WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.
- PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AREAS OF FROST. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS FRIDAY SHIFTING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN TO THE CASCADE CREST,
SOUTHEASTERN WA, AND ID PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A WEAK FRONT PUSHES A BAND OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, A STRENGTHENING CROSS-CASCADE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. HREF MEMBERS INDICATE WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 3 PM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND 9 AM SUNDAY EVENING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH (LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH). IN
ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS, RHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY RANGING FROM
28 TO 35 PERCENT FRIDAY EVENING WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN
THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE LOWER SUGARLOAF FIRE STILL
BURNING IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL WA CASCADES WHERE SOME OF
THE HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR THE THE ZONE CONTAINING THE FIRE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RISK FOR RAPID
FIRE SPREAD. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY
- STILL SHOWING A 70 TO 80% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE LOWER SUGARLOAF FIRE PERIMETER.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTH, SUBSIDING THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND SIMULTANEOUSLY PICKING
UP DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND PURCELL TRENCH AND REMAINING GUSTY
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
60% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH AROUND OMAK, MOSES LAKE, AND
EPHRATA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING PARTICULARLY IN THE
SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL NEAR
FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS INCLUDING COLVILLE AND REPUBLIC CREATING
POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
INLAND. WEAKENING WINDS AND WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S
WILL FAVOR FROST DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. BEYOND TUESDAY, MODEL
CONSENSUS IS POOR. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM OFF THE PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
THERE IS LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING, STRENGTH, AND TRACK OF
THE LOW. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND PROVIDE MORE
DETAILS AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. /RF
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAT WILL HAVE INCREASED WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 44 66 40 62 36 65 / 10 0 10 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 45 64 40 61 36 65 / 10 10 20 10 0 0
PULLMAN 42 61 36 61 34 64 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
LEWISTON 50 66 45 65 42 67 / 0 20 10 10 0 0
COLVILLE 32 66 30 62 27 65 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 46 61 41 57 36 61 / 20 30 40 10 0 0
KELLOGG 46 59 42 58 38 64 / 10 40 50 20 0 0
MOSES LAKE 45 70 43 66 35 68 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 50 68 45 65 43 68 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 45 67 41 64 41 67 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR FOOTHILLS OF
CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705).
ID...NONE.
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